Today, Brazil hits another unfortunate milestone: the 100K death toll. It's a somber day for Brazil, indeed.
Brazil has been the epicenter of the outbreak in South America since May, occupying the number two position behind the US but far surpassing the hardest-hit European countries and India.
The outbreak in Brazil was quite delayed relative to the outbreak in Europe and the USA. On 3/15, Brazil had only 200 cases and no deaths, while the US already had 160,686 cases and 2,985 deaths. In Europe, Italy had 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths, while the cases in Spain and France were on the rise.
Highlights...
1. Brazil has been experiencing an extraordinary surge since May. While daily cases averaged 29,573 in June, the average jumped to 41,316 in July/August -- a whopping 40% escalation. The 5-day moving average trendline confirms the massive rise. The 'W' formation poses a more severe threat in the short-run.
2. However, the daily death toll has been flat-lining, which is a silver lining in all this doom and gloom. The daily death toll averaged 1,009 in June, moving sideways to 1,050 in July/August. On eighteen different occasions in July/August, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 1,200 instances. The trendline also demonstrates the sideways movement in July/August.
3. The slope in the above aggregate regression graph is almost perfectly linear, posing the same relentless threat more threat to the vulnerable population as in June and July, considering Brazil -- like the rest of hard-hit South America -- has a very high positivity rate.
4. The above daily regression graph's slope remains linear, confirming that the mortality rate -- unlike in the US and Europe -- has been uncontrolled. The daily regression scatter produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value, without the handful of outliers resulting from inconsistent reporting on weekends.
5. The above table shows how Brazil stacks up against its hardest-hit South American neighbors. Though it has a reason death rate, its normalized population mortality rate has been very high, behind only Peru and Chile. In general, South America has some of the highest positivity rates in the world, and Brazil has not bucked the trend either.
By being in Southern Hemisphere, Brazil is in the middle of the winter season, meaning it is also in the midst of the conventional allergy and flu season, thus accentuating the havoc.
Unfortunately, many local experts believe the reported numbers do not reflect the reality on the ground. According to Alexandre Naime Barbosa, a medical professor at the São Paulo State University, "The true number (of cases) could even be as high as 10 million people."
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
Brazil has been the epicenter of the outbreak in South America since May, occupying the number two position behind the US but far surpassing the hardest-hit European countries and India.
The outbreak in Brazil was quite delayed relative to the outbreak in Europe and the USA. On 3/15, Brazil had only 200 cases and no deaths, while the US already had 160,686 cases and 2,985 deaths. In Europe, Italy had 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths, while the cases in Spain and France were on the rise.
Highlights...
 |
| (Click on the image to enlarge) |
2. However, the daily death toll has been flat-lining, which is a silver lining in all this doom and gloom. The daily death toll averaged 1,009 in June, moving sideways to 1,050 in July/August. On eighteen different occasions in July/August, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 1,200 instances. The trendline also demonstrates the sideways movement in July/August.
3. The slope in the above aggregate regression graph is almost perfectly linear, posing the same relentless threat more threat to the vulnerable population as in June and July, considering Brazil -- like the rest of hard-hit South America -- has a very high positivity rate.
4. The above daily regression graph's slope remains linear, confirming that the mortality rate -- unlike in the US and Europe -- has been uncontrolled. The daily regression scatter produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value, without the handful of outliers resulting from inconsistent reporting on weekends.
 |
| (Click on tbe image to enlarge) |
5. The above table shows how Brazil stacks up against its hardest-hit South American neighbors. Though it has a reason death rate, its normalized population mortality rate has been very high, behind only Peru and Chile. In general, South America has some of the highest positivity rates in the world, and Brazil has not bucked the trend either.
By being in Southern Hemisphere, Brazil is in the middle of the winter season, meaning it is also in the midst of the conventional allergy and flu season, thus accentuating the havoc.
Unfortunately, many local experts believe the reported numbers do not reflect the reality on the ground. According to Alexandre Naime Barbosa, a medical professor at the São Paulo State University, "The true number (of cases) could even be as high as 10 million people."
Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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