To keep this blog post short and simple, the Midwest here comprises only five states: Illinois (IL), Indiana (IN), Michigan (MI), Minnesota (MN), and Wisconsin (WI).
While some of the Midwest states (IN, MN and WI) are surging, others (IL and MI) are resurging. Even the states that are left out have been participating in the current surge.
1. The current surge resumed in mid-June and has been escalating rapidly. The daily cases averaged 2,093 in June but jumped 78% in July to a whopping 3,716. MI, which encountered a massive surge in April, has been spearheading the current surge with 165% jump, month-over-month, followed by WI (129%), IN (79%), IL (50%) and MN (35%).
2. The above correlation matrix reveals that the combined MidWest has the highest and lowest correlations expectedly with MI and MN, respectively, in line with their contributions to the current surge. Likewise, MI has the highest and lowest correlations with WI and MN, respectively. Since multi-collinearity has been disregarded here, it has paved the way for some minor distortions.
While some of the Midwest states (IN, MN and WI) are surging, others (IL and MI) are resurging. Even the states that are left out have been participating in the current surge.
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| (Click on the image to enlarge) |
1. The current surge resumed in mid-June and has been escalating rapidly. The daily cases averaged 2,093 in June but jumped 78% in July to a whopping 3,716. MI, which encountered a massive surge in April, has been spearheading the current surge with 165% jump, month-over-month, followed by WI (129%), IN (79%), IL (50%) and MN (35%).
2. The above correlation matrix reveals that the combined MidWest has the highest and lowest correlations expectedly with MI and MN, respectively, in line with their contributions to the current surge. Likewise, MI has the highest and lowest correlations with WI and MN, respectively. Since multi-collinearity has been disregarded here, it has paved the way for some minor distortions.
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| (CLick on the image to enlarge) |
3. The residual impact of the prior surge has contributed to MI's inflated death rate, resulting in the entire MidWest's higher death rate. While MI and IL have been registering higher death and population mortality rates, WI and MN are on a better course. On the other hand, the positivity rates of IL and IN have remained relatively high. IN's testing credentials have also fallen behind its regional counterparts.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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