Coronavirus Pandemic – July was an Awful Month for the USA

(Click on the image to enlarge)

1. The US has been experiencing an extraordinary surge due to the considerable escalation in the Sunbelt. While daily cases averaged 27,990 in June, the average more than doubled in July to a whopping 61,148. The 5-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged a 636 in June, rapidly climbing to 808 in July. On ten different occasions in July, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 1,000 instances. Had the reporting been more consistent in the weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. The trendline, however, demonstrates the sharp rise in July.

3. The slope in the regression graph is not only exponential, but the angle is also tilting up. Although the growth rate started declining in mid-June, the trend suddenly reversed in July, thus bumping up the slope from the prior linear to the exponential. This reversal, primarily brought about by the Sunbelt, has caused significant concerns at the CDC and local public health professionals.

4. Though the US death rate has steadily declined, falling below the worldwide average, its positivity rate has been inching up. Of course, this spike could very well result from the increased testing, which has lately been logging in at 180K (per million people). The US's testing credentials are second only to Russia's.

5. At the beginning of June, New York and New Jersey spearheaded the total cases, while Texas and Florida occupied the seventh and eighth positions. Now, California, Florida, and Texas top the list. Unfortunately, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, the four hard-hit Sunbelt states have been registering very high positivity rates, causing serious concerns for the local hospitals.

Data Sources: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com