Coronavirus Pandemic – South Carolina is the latest State to join the Surge in the Sunbelt

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1. South Carolina is the latest state to join the extraordinary surge in the Sunbelt. While the daily cases averaged 818 in June, the average more than doubled to 1,697 in July. The 5-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

2. The daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged a mere 8 in June, exponentiating to 31 in July. On eight different occasions, the daily deaths exceeded 50 instances. Had the reporting been more consistent, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. The trendline, however, demonstrates the sharp rise in July.

3. The regression graph is perhaps more telling. The slope is not only exponential, but the angle is also getting steeper every day. Initially, the growth rate in daily cases either moved in tandem or exceeded the increase in death tolls. Still, lately it has sharply reversed, causing significant paranoia among local public health professionals.   

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4. The above table shows how South Carolina compares with the other Sunbelt states currently under siege by the surge. Despite the rising death toll in July, South Carolina's death rate of 1.9% remains comparable to its Sunbelt counterparts and is well under the national average. Even its normalized population death rate (per million) remains contained. 

5. Finally, the rising positivity rate, which is well above the national average, has become a severe concern to its hospital system. Any further escalation in hospitalizations will push the system to a tipping point.

Data Sources: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Carolina

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com