Coronavirus Pandemic – Death Toll in the Sunbelt keeps Surging

(Click on the image to enlarge)

1. The combined picture above shows how a massive surge in death toll has taken over the Sunbelt since the beginning of July, with the average daily toll moving up by almost 100 deaths every week. While the daily average death toll in June was 171, it jumped to 440 in July and rocketed to 618 in August, proving the horrific nature of the surge. The 7-day moving average confirms the surge. One must understand these are actual deaths and not just confirmed cases.

2. The Florida and Texas graphs demonstrate the almost uniform contributions of the states to the overall picture. While the daily average of Florida in June was 35, it escalated to 108 in July and 159 in August. The Texas case has been even worse. The daily average in June was a mere 25, increasing to 132 in July and 227 in August. In other words, the surge between June and August has already exceeded a whopping 800%.

3. The above regression of daily death counts between California and Florida shows a positive linear relationship. When a handful of outliers are removed from the scatter, the r-squared value improves significantly, proving that inter-state movements have been in lockstep. 

(Click on the image to enlarge)

4. Fortunately, the death rates have remained in line with the national average. Unfortunately, Arizona and Florida's positivity rates have remained very high, while Georgia and Texas are catching up. Alongside, Louisiana, Alabama, South Carolina, and Nevada are also surging. Alabama and South Carolina have been registering double-digit positivity rates as well. 

Given these high death tolls -- not just confirmed cases or hospitalizations -- state governors must keep mitigation measures, including mandatory use of masks in all public places until the current situation drastically improves.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Arizona (and others)

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com