Coronavirus Pandemic – India Endures Two Grim Milestones: 2.5M Cases and 50K Deaths

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1. The above graph shows how surging daily cases have been tormenting India. Between 6/19 and 7/15, the daily cases averaged 21,083, skyrocketing to 51,291 since then -- a whopping 143% jump in mere a month. Even the 7-day moving average has been trending at over the perfectly-linear 45-degree.

2. The daily death toll also kept pace, moving in tandem with the cases. During the periods described above, the death toll average jumped nearly 80%, from 447 to 798. While the moving average trendline has remained linear, it is slightly below the perfect-45. Unfortunately, the average has further jumped to 918 in the last ten days.

3. Since the above two graphs demonstrated linear trends during the same period, the regression between the two datasets is expectedly linear, as evidenced by the high r-squared value of 0.872. 

Hey Applied Econ students -- Here is the power of outliers: Without one outlier data point on 7/23, the r-squared jumps to 0.93.

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4. Given the large population of India, it has one of the smallest population (per million) death rates among the hardest-hit countries in the world. Since it opted for a series of lockdowns initially, instead of intensifying testing, its testing credentials are woefully weak. Its positivity rate has been inching up too.

Happy Independence Day, India!

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_India

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com