Coronavirus Pandemic – Romania has been Surging alongside other Central European Countries

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1. Despite having escaped a major outbreak alongside the original hard-hit European countries, Romania has been experiencing an unexpected surge since mid-July. While daily cases averaged 257 in June, the average more than doubled in July to 771 and has continued into August. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the steadily-rising surge.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged 13 in June, rapidly climbing to 22 in July. On ten different occasions in July, the daily deaths exceeded 25 instances. The trendline also demonstrates the sharp rise in July.

3. Though the slope in the aggregate regression graph (top) is linear, the slope in the daily graph (bottom) has already transformed exponentially, which poses a significant threat in the short-run. The regression of daily cases without the handful of outliers produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value. 

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4. The above table shows how Romania stacks up against its neighbors. Though its death rate has been steadily rising, its positivity rate has remained stable. However, even after six months into the pandemic in Europe, it's hard to believe it has been registering only 67K testing credentials. As it increases its testing, the cases and positivity are expected to escalate.  

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Romania

-Sid Som
homequant@Qgmail.com