Analysis of the Closed-out Coronavirus Cases – the US Case

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Out of the 708,823 cases nationwide, only 96,723 (14%) cases have closed. The closed cases comprise the sum of the total deaths and recovered, with national averages of 38% and 62%, respectively.

Of course, this analysis is meaningful for the four states -- NY, NJ, CA and WA -- that have peaked. 

New York, the epicenter of the US outbreak with 234K (33%) cases, has been in close alignment with the national averages, with a split of 42% and 58%.   

Though New Jersey has peaked, it has reported only 5,111 (6.5%) closed cases. Based on such a small sample, it is too premature to draw a meaningful conclusion of their split, though they have a very high death rate thus far.

Although California was one of the early victims of the outbreak, it has done a better job (than the eastern states) due to early lock-down. Despite a smaller sample of 2,371 closed cases, the split seems reasonable, i.e., in line with the national averages.

Despite the early jolt, the state of Washington has done a commendable job of not letting it go out of control. In terms of the total number cases, it has dropped from number one spot two months ago to number fourteen with a mere 11,152 cases, representing 1.6% of the national total. Of the 2,298 closed-out cases, they have a 75% recovery rate -- a true achievement indeed!

MA and MI have diametrically opposite splits, while PA and FL are somewhere in between. LA, IL, GA, TX, MD, IN and CT are going through the initial surges so more time and data are needed before stats are considered reliable or even inferential.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com