The five original hardest-hit European countries -- France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK -- now face a massive second wave.
A resurgence occurs right after the taper. In this case, it is a clear case of a second wave as this new wave emerged at least three months after the initial taper, meaning the new cases virtually subsided between May and July. Unfortunately, the coupling of this new wave and an exponential upswing makes the imminent flu season scarier, to say the least.
While the scientists were expecting a new wave in the winter months, they are now baffled by this early wave.
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The above graph shows France had a mere few hundred daily cases in early July, rising to a couple of thousands, thus leading to an average of 1,110. The average in August tripled to 3,724. Fast forward two months and the October average now stands at 18,756. Lately, on two separate occasions, the daily cases have exceeded a whopping 30,000.
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Though Germany has been experiencing the same second wave, it is not as dire as the other countries. The fact that the upper limit of the Y-axis here is 8,000, compared to France's 35,000 -- shows its lack of comparative severity. Yet, the daily average went from a mere 466 in July to 4,359 in October -- a ninefold escalation.
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The new wave in Italy is as awful as that of France; for example, the daily average rocketed from a mere 226 in July to 6.418 in October -- a sobering 28-fold increase in just a matter of three months. Even the slope of the 7-day moving average not only confirms this skyrocketing trend, but its exponential tilt makes public health officials wonder if they would return to the horror days of March and April.
Spain's expanded curve (including the initial surge) shows that the second wave is not just a passing show -- it's a massive outbreak. July's daily average of 1,767 has grown to 13,924 in September and rising further to 15,652 in October. Since Spain doesn't report the weekend figures, the spikes are somewhat asymmetric.
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The outbreak in the UK is very similar to Italy. After an extended pause, the new wave emerged, and within a short period, it took over like wildfire. The July daily average of 670 has grown to 15,998 in October, and lately, the cases have exceeded 20,000 on three separate days.
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The regression between the two most contrasting outbreaks has linear collinearity, as evidenced by the high r-squared value of 0.905.
Despite the existence of the social mitigation measures and minimal cross-country air travel, these countries are again surging simultaneously, causing more uncertainty of the winter months ahead. Meanwhile, the death tolls are also rising daily.
Stay safe!
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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