Coronavirus Pandemic – The Second Wave in the UK has been Deadlier

Even before the emergence of the UK's variant strain, the massive surge in cases and deaths from the second wave was tormenting the country. 

Now, the faster and deadlier pace of transmission of the new strain has forced parts of the country back into lockdown. Of course, if the current vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are effective against the new strain, it would be welcome news for the UK and other countries as the public health experts suspect that the new strain has already been incubating elsewhere. 

After an extended remission in the summer, a renewed surge hit the UK in the fall. Still, it promptly tapered in late November, allowing public health professionals to breathe a sigh of relief. Unfortunately, it was extremely short-lived. The above graph shows how vicious the December resurgence has been. The daily cases averaged a mere 4K in September, rocketing to 18K in October, and 23K thus far in December. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

After the initial breakout was brought under control in early summer, the UK's daily death toll tapered to single digits, only to return fiercely in the fall, and steadily rising ever since. To put the horror of the daily death toll, let's look at the monthly averages: 21 in September, rising to 142 in October, tripling to 396 in November, and escalating further to 461 thus far in December. The most recent trend has been more horrific, as the daily tolls have consistently exceeded the 500-mark. Today (12/23), the UK registered a heart-breaking toll of 744.

Since Italy has also been hard-hit by the second wave, it offers an excellent comparative platform. Obviously, due to the very similar outbreaks, the data points demonstrate collinearity, resulting in high r-squared values. However, the above trendlines also emphasize how the UK's cases and deaths have lately been eclipsing Italy's. Needless to say, if the new strain impacts en masse, the slope will exponentiate.  

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The UK is now third on the European chart with over 2M cases and 69K deaths. Though its positivity rate has remained low, its death rate has been ticking up.

To prevent another Wuhan, it should temporarily close down all of its international passenger airports. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com