Coronavirus Pandemic – How the Continents have Fared So Far

While North America has been hit with the highest number of cases at 6.7M, Africa has the lowest at 1.2M. Between the highest and lowest cases, Asia, South America, and Europe have so far accounted for 5.9M, 5.5M, and 3.2M, respectively. Likewise, North America and Africa share the highest and lowest death tolls at 252K and 27K, respectively. 

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Africa -- The above table shows the hardest-hit ten countries in Africa. Unfortunately, South Africa alone accounts for 52% of the cases and 47% of all deaths on the continent. Though South Africa's death rate remains low, its positivity rate has been high. Egypt has an astronomically high positivity rate of 72%. While South Africa and Morocco have been intensifying testing, the other countries' credentials have been appallingly poor.

Asia -- India has been the epicenter on this continent for a while, with 48% and 43% of all cases and deaths. Though India's death rate and population relativity ratio have been low, its testing record has been dreadful. Iran has been another sad story in Asia. It not only has the highest death rate but also owns a high positivity rate. Today, it has surged past the 20K death mark. Qatar, Bangladesh, Iraq, and Pakistan are also encountering high positivity rates.

Europe -- Russia has been the frontrunner for a while, with nearly 30% on the continent's cases. Of course, the four hardest-hit countries when the pandemic first broke out in Europe -- France, Italy, Spain, and the UK -- still account for some of the highest death tolls on the continent. Their death rates remain high as they did not face any resurgence. Sweden has the highest positivity rate as it opted to experiment with herd immunity. Ukraine has the most inadequate testing record on the list.

North America -- The North American story has been the tale of two countries -- the US and Mexico. The US accounts for 85% of all cases and 70% of all deaths on the continent. Lately, the Sunbelt in the US has been going through a massive resurgence. Sadly, Mexico's story has been unique: Though it accounts for only 8% of the cases, it owns 23% of all deaths, paving the way for a high death rate. Canada also has a high death rate. Other than the US and Canada, the testing records for the rest have been woefully inadequate. 

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South America -- Unlike North America, where the US accounts for the lion's share, the five worst-hit countries own 95% of all cases and deaths, although Brazil has been the biggest victim of the lot, with 63% of the cases and 61% of the deaths. Brazil continues to be the epicenter on the continent, with over 800 daily deaths. The positivity rates in South America remain the highest in the world. Chile is the only country on the continent to have crossed the 100K mark in population-testing ratio.

Stay Safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Canada has Tapered but Testing Credentials are Subpar

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1. The above graph shows how the daily cases in Canada have completely tapered in July/August. It averaged at the peak in May at 1,196, plunged to 442 in June and further moved sideways to 384 in July/August. The absence of any upside momentum, as evidenced by the 7-day moving average, bodes quite well for the near future, meaning no resurgence is on the horizon.

2. After averaging 130 daily deaths in May, the toll nicely plummeted to 43 in June and a mere 9 in July/August. The 7-day moving average emphatically depicts the collapsing and flattening of the curve.

3. The regression reveals that the death rate curve has flattened since hitting 100K cases. While the total cases climbed from 100K to 122K in July/August, the death toll barely moved from 8,500 to 9,000. A non-linear trendline, therefore, shows the near-perfect fit with the resulting r-squared value.

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4. Unfortunately, among the countries with similar caseloads (100K to 200K), Canada has the highest death rate at 7.4%, more than twice the worldwide average of 3.5%. The reason is straightforward: Among all of the advanced and wealthy countries in the world, Canada's testing credentials remain at the bottom quartile; case in point: The US and the UK have been registering at 216K (per million population), while Canada has been bouncing around at 126K. 

Of course, the silver lining has been Canada's meager positivity rate, which is expected to move up as the testing gets intensified. Nonetheless, Canada has thus far been very fortunate to have such a low positivity rate. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

2020 Coronavirus Pandemic in Canada - Wikipedia

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com