Coronavirus Pandemic – Poland, Romania, and Ukraine Face Massive Surge; Russia Resurges

While Romania, Poland, and Ukraine face a massive surge, Russia faces a dramatic resurgence, retesting the May peak.

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At the initial peak in May, Russia averaged 9,656 daily cases. When it wholly tapered in August, the average drastically declined to 5,011. However, in the last 15 days, it averaged 8,854 -- a whopping 77% re-escalation from the August bottom. The 7-day moving average eerily confirms the on-going resurgence.

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Though the initial surge in Ukraine was tepid until July, it has picked up massive momentum ever since; for example, between April and June, the daily average stood at a mere 491, nearly quadrupling to 1,685 in August, and simply rocketing to 3,223 in September-October. 

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After experiencing a rapid surge in July, Romania had peaked in August but failed to taper. Instead, it has resumed the surge, quickly eclipsing the initial peak. Between April and June, the daily cases averaged 272, escalating to 1,487 in September-October. Lately, it has been making new highs almost every day, with the 7-day moving average showing an exponential reversal. 

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The situation in Poland has been slightly different. It more or less flatlined between April and July, escalated slightly in August, and has been rising meteorically in September-October. Comparing the April-June daily average of 354 with the last 15 days' average of 1,775 makes a more compelling case. The moving average trendline is also confirming.

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The above correlations matrix is quite telling. Considering Russia's on-going situation is a resurgence, rather than the initial surge, it has virtually no correlations with the other three countries. On the other hand, since Poland, Romania, and Ukraine continue their initial surge, they share high collinearity among them. The similarity of the surge between Romania and Ukraine paves the way for the highest collinearity of 0.87. 

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Unfortunately, unlike in other parts of Europe where the death toll remains low despite the resurgence, the elevated death toll in Russia has returned, routinely retesting the old highs set in June. Poland, Romania, and Ukraine are no different -- their current death charts continue to mimic the surge.

These countries need a rapid taper to avoid having to run into the winter flu season.

Data Source: Wikipedia: COVID-19 pandemic in Russia

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Ukraine, Poland and Romania are Surging; Belarus and Serbia have Tapered

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While Ukraine, Romania, and Poland tapered in June-July, they resumed a rapid surge in late July and continued into August. The June 1,326 daily average jumped to 1,976 in July and rocketed further to 3,584 in August.

Both 7-day moving average trendlines confirm the taper as well as the rapid reversal of the trend. The standalone Ukraine chart and the associated trendline not only confirm the overall trend but also reveal an exponential degeneration at the outer end of the curve, indicating further escalation soon.

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Though both Belarus and Serbia have tapered, the former peaked and tapered in June while the latter peaked in late July and tapered in August. At the peak, the daily average of Belarus was 850, collapsing to 130 in August. On the other hand, Serbia averaged 354 in July, tapering to 185 in August.

Unfortunately, Belarus has started showing a tepid resurgence in late August, which even the trendline has picked up.

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The above correlation matrix nicely combines the attributes of the two conflicting data trends. Since Ukraine, Romania, and Poland have surged in lockstep, the resulting coefficients are positively correlated. Likewise, they have negative-to-low correlations with Belarus and Serbia. As expected, Belarus and Serbia have relatively high negative correlations.

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Since Belarus had managed to intensify testing among its most vulnerable, it has been credited with one of the region's lowest death rates. Though Ukraine's death rate remains low, its testing credentials are abysmal. Romania has been registering a higher death rate, but its positivity remains low, and the testing is getting better. Serbia has responded well all around.

Ukraine remains the hot spot in the region. It needs better testing and more serious social measures.

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ukraine (and others)

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com