Coronavirus Pandemic – The Second Wave in Germany Worsens by the Day

While the initial outbreak in Germany was not as dreadful as the other hardest-hit countries in Europe, such as Italy, France, Spain, or the UK, the ongoing second wave has been awful, both in terms of the number of cases and death tolls. 

During the mid-summer month of July, when the pandemic was in remission, the daily cases averaged a meager 466. With the advent of fall, the pandemic returned in full fury as the averages started rising: 1,561 in September and 7,404 in October. Then, November (though 12/5) turned more horrific, and the average rocketed to 18,137, a whopping 39-fold increase from dormant July. The cases exceeded 20K in each of the recent three days. 

Likewise, the daily deaths averaged a mere five in July, rising to 31 in October, and soaring to 230 thus far in Nov-Dec. The fact that the daily tolls have consistently exceeded 400 in recent days and new weekly highs are being recorded perhaps points to a bleak winter until the vaccines are widely available and accepted. The 7-day moving average trendline also confirms the rapidly rising trend, despite the weekend reporting anomalies. 

The regression graph shows that the death rate subsided in the summer, falling significantly below the linear trendline. Unfortunately, as the fall arrived, it promptly turned into an exponential trend, meaning the death rate has been far surpassing the growth in cases. The exponential trend's r-squared value is 0.971 (not shown), which handily beats the r-squared value of the linear trend.

Though Germany has registered over 1.2M confirmed cases, it's still number eleven on the chart, well below the five worst-hit European countries, both in cases and deaths. Moreover, it has one of the lowest death rates globally, coupled with a low positivity rate. Despite the surge, its active status has been well-managed at 27%, while France records at 90%. Surprisingly, its population testing credentials have been lagging behind those of its neighbors.  

Given the surging wave, Germany needs to authorize the emergency use of the available vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. 

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Germany 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – Is Russia Sitting on a Ticking Time Bomb?

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Highlights...

1. Compared to the outbreaks in other hard-hit European countries, the Russian outbreak was a bit belated. But between 4/1 and 5/13, Russia saw an astronomical 8600% increase in the number of cases (top graph), from a mere 2,777 to a whopping 242,271 cases. In May alone, the number of cases more than doubled.

2. The outbreak-related death toll has been even worse. During the same period, the death toll skyrocketed from 24 to 2,212 -- a heart-breaking 9100% escalation. The slope has been identical (not shown), with the exact same r-squared.

3. While the current trend for incoming cases is not a perfect exponential (blue trendline) one yet, the slope has already graduated above the linear trend (green trendline), and is incrementally bending backwards, as evidenced by the higher r-squared value. 

4. Unfortunately, the regression relationship (bottom graph) between the two data sets is a perfect linear one. In other words, they are moving in lockstep. Since the most recent data trend has been more exponential than linear, the death rate is expected to climb in the near future, unless the curve is quickly flattened by means of more serious mitigation techniques.

5. Although Russia's current death rate is still very low (1%) as compared to its neighbors (average 10%), its recovery rate thus far has also been abysmally low while the critically-ill population percent remains very high, causing a more serious situation.

Russia is sitting on a ticking time bomb. It has to get back to square one, meaning returning to total lockdown along with a more meaningful mitigation model. Instead of paying too much attention to its 1% oligarchs, it needs to pay immediate attention to its 99% before it's a day too late!  

Also, Russia should immediately talk to our great scientists at the CDC for an alternative mitigation model.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Russia

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – Total Tests and Positive Cases are Negatively Correlated

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Sample Extraction: 
1. Worldwide sample
2. Countries with total cases > 25K
3. Tests per million population > 10K

Given these criteria, many densely populated countries like Brazil, India, Iran, Mexico, etc. have been excluded. Since China does not disclose its testing credentials, it didn't make the list either.   


Highlights...

1. The correlation matrix (bottom graphic) shows that the total number of tests administered and the rate of positivity are negatively correlated, meaning more tests will not necessarily produce more positive cases. Of course, certain countries might buck this norm. For instance, though the USA has thus far performed the maximum number of tests, it has a high positive rate at 14%, defying the norm. Conversely, Russia, Germany and Italy -- the next three highest testing countries -- have positive rates that conform quite closely to the norm.

2. The total cases and total tests are highly correlated as only the symptomatic candidates -- a medically homogeneous population -- are being tested. This correlation will decline over time as the testing extends to some of the asymptomatic portions of the population as well. 

3. The total tests are also highly correlated with total deaths (0.7822) and active cases (0.8903), proving that the more serious or critical candidates have been receiving priority in testing. Considering the critical nature of those cases, they also remain active for a longer period of time.

4. As expected, the countries with the lowest actual death rates (total deaths to total cases) have also the lowest death rates per million population. For instance, the three countries with 1% death rates -- Saudi Arabia, Russia and Chile -- have the lowest population death rates at 7, 14 and 17, respectively.

5. Likewise, the countries with the highest actual death rates -- Belgium, France, Spain and the UK -- have the highest population death rates (> 400 per million) as well.

Stay well!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – Is it Gender-neutral?

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There has been a lot of talk about the gender and age distribution of the coronavirus cases and deaths in the hardest-hit countries in Europe. Since Spain provides a large enough sample representing those countries, especially Belgium, France, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and the UK, it is being used here to make the empirical case. This sample represents all confirmed cases through 05-04-20.

Overall, while there were 26,819 more cases for women, the death rate for them was significantly lower at 5.94% versus 10.46% for men.

1. Between the ages of 0 and 19, the infection and death rates for both genders were negligible (<1%). Considering that only the symptomatic cases were confirmed and closed, one can easily infer almost herd immunity for the asymptomatic candidates in those two age groups. 

2. In the next two age groups, i.e., 20 to 29 and 30 to 39, while the infection rates were much higher, the death rates were nonetheless negligible (<1%). One can, therefore, infer that these two age groups, irrespective of the gender, are prone to "mild to moderate" infections, thus easily leading to recovery.

3. In the next two age groups, i.e., 40 to 49 and 50 to 59, while the rates were expectedly higher, there were however no significant gender-wise differences in either rate. Simply put, between the ages of 0 and 59, gender was more or less insignificant, either way.

4. Gender however played a significant role in the next two age groups, i.e., 60 to 69 and 70 to 79. Both rates were significantly higher in men than in women, especially the death rate in the higher age group.

5. Then again, the rates were very similar in the next age group of 80 to 89, except that the death rate was a bit higher for women than for men. 

6. Gender again played a significant role in the 90+ age group, when both rates literally doubled for women.  

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Spain

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – Is the Age Distribution Meaningful?

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There has been a lot of talk about the age distribution of the coronavirus cases and deaths in the hardest-hit countries in Europe. Since Spain provides a large enough sample to represent those countries, especially France, Germany, Italy and the UK, it has been used here to make the empirical case.

1. The combined age groups of 0 to 9 and 10 to 19 account for less than 1% of the total cases while the fatality rate is almost null at 0.04%, indicating that the youngest folks have more or less "herd immunity" against the coronavirus. Thus, the asymptomatic populations in these two age groups -- without any underlying medical conditions -- do not require any immediate testing whatsoever. 

2. While the infection rates between the ages of 20 to 39 progressively move up, the cumulative fatality rate again is negligible at 0.46%. Though these two age groups do not have herd immunity, the asymptomatic candidates are nonetheless "non-priority" in terms of the first round of testing.  

3. Though the infection rate in the next age group of 40 to 49 is quite high at nearly 15%, the fatality rate is remarkably low at a mere 1.07%. Hence, the asymptomatic folks in this age group should be considered "low priority" in testing. 

4. While the overall infection rate is even higher for those between the ages of 50 and 59, the fatality rate there is still quite low at 3.29%. Therefore, the asymptomatic population here should receive "low to moderate" priority in testing.

5. Though the mortality rate in the 60 to 69 age group is much higher, it is nonetheless significantly lower than those in the 70+ groups. As such, the asymptomatic folks  in this age group should have "moderate" priority in testing.

6. Given the high mortality rates in the 70+ age groups, these folks are at the highest risk. Thus, the asymptomatic folks must receive "high" priority in testing, right after  -- or alongside -- all of the symptomatic folks. 

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Spain


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Analyzing Coronavirus Stats – the European Case – 04/29/2020 Update

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Highlights...


1. Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit European countries, those with at least 20K cases. Italy, Spain, France, UK and Germany have peaked as their new cases, based on 2-day moving averages, have been trending down. Spain remains at the top of the European list with 237K cases, followed by Italy, France, UK and Germany with 204K, 166K, 165K and 161K cases, respectively. Since Russia's surge has been more recent, in the last 10 days its cases have more than doubled. Belgium and the Netherlands have also experienced significant jumps in caseloads.

2. Deaths -- Though some of these European countries have been continuing in the 10-15% range, the UK and Belgium have hit an alarming 16% death rate. Fortunately, Germany, Switzerland, Portugal and Ireland have significantly lower death rates in 4 to 6% ranges, well below the worldwide average of 7%. Obviously, it's too premature to talk about Russia's death rate due to its more recent surge.

3. Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak across Europe, the country-wise recovery rates are all over the map, with Germany and Switzerland in the mid-'70s while Sweden and Portugal are struggling with extremely low rates. Lately, Ireland and Spain started showing some improvements, but Belgium, France and Italy are still stuck in 20's and 30's. Again, the Russian situation is still evolving so its recovery rate remains unpredictable at this point.  

4. Active Cases -- Switzerland and Germany have been keeping the active caseloads more manageable than the rest. Ireland and Spain are showing improvements as well. It's good to see that the active rates of Belgium, Italy and France have already fallen below the worldwide average of 62%. As expected, the countries with more recent surge, especially Portugal and Russia, have been dealing with very high active rates. 

5. Tests and Positive Cases -- Russia is the only European country to have administered well over 3M tests, followed by Germany (2.5M), Italy (1.9M) and Spain (1.4M). France has the highest positive test rate at 36% while Belgium and UK are registering in the low 20's. Sweden, Netherlands and Spain are showing up in upper teens as well. As usual, Germany, Portugal, Switzerland, Italy and Ireland are showing green shoots, with significantly lower positives. The reason Russia has a very low rate is that its tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population. In terms of the normalized rates (per million populations), Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland are well ahead of the rest with 30K testing rates. Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic populations only.  

Stay safe!

Data Source: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 



-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Evaluating Scenarios and Outcomes Related to Re-opening the Economy

Since we are ready to open up the non-essential sectors of the economy, we must be prudent and act on the advice of our great CDC scientists -- instead of politicians worried about their electoral prospects in November -- to avoid having to walk into a much bigger disaster.

At this point, we have three basic choices...

1. Test Employed People and Let "Negatives" Return to Work -- Gradually open the economy by allowing only the employed folks, who also test negative, to return to work. Of course, given the size of this population, we need a well-thought-out segmentation plan backed by a risk-tolerant model (see my prior post below for details). This approach (green trendline) might quickly reduce the current 2,000+/- daily death toll to a projected 1,000+/- in 30 days, with a steadily declining trend. If we stay this course, the next flu season, which could be much worse as the CDC projects, will also be far better managed.      

2. Let All Asymptomatic People Return to Work -- This second option, perhaps the likeliest scenario, is to allow, even encourage, the asymptomatic people to return to (or look for) work. This may be performed by "Tele Health," allowing private physicians to check (via telephone or video call) and certify the people to return. This practice carries an inherent risk to the employer as many returning employees might easily pass as asymptomatic during the incubation period. This inherent risk aided by people's underlying medical conditions might not help lower the current rate. The flattening curve (blue trendline) captures this phenomenon, meaning the curve continues to go sideways, rather than declining. In order to lower the overall risk, the certifying physicians must be allowed to consider patients' medical conditions (diabetes, hypertension, cancer, etc.). Of course, this approach is nothing but kicking the can down the road.    

3. Let the Governors Decide (en Masse) -- This is the worst possible scenario with serious negative outcomes, perhaps leading to workplace chaos, high absenteeism and employee turnovers. This unnecessary exuberance will further spike infections and, consequently, more deaths as well. Obviously, expecting the non-healthcare employees to use masks (long-term) will have very negative effects on work. The red trendline loosely replicates this dangerous scenario. This dangerous approach may trigger a more serious second wave in combination with the next flu season. At this point, the governors must consider the health and safety of the 99% rather than paying too much attention to the 1%. The 1% can always flee to Hamptons and Catskill ... didn't we just see that?

Stay safe.

Data Source: 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States

Also Read
We Need a Meaningful "Test and Return to Work" Segmentation Plan to Avoid a Bigger Rebound Disaster

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
     

Analyzing Coronavirus Stats – the Global Case – 04/23/2020 Update

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Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 25K coronavirus cases (as of 8pm on 4/23). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would simply skew the real stats. The worldwide total has now exceeded a mammoth 2.71M cases. The US has still been the epicenter of this pandemic outbreak with nearly 880K cases (32.4% of the worldwide total). Italy, Spain and France have peaked as their new cases, based on 2-day moving averages, have been flat-lining or trending down. Spain remains at the top of the European list with 213K cases, followed by Italy, France and Germany with 190K, 158K and 153K cases, respectively. In last weeks, the UK has experienced cases skyrocketing to 138K cases, vigorously overtaking Turkey and Iran.

Deaths -- Though the US death rate of 5.7% has been below the worldwide average of 7.0% (well above the WHO's estimate of 3.4%), some of the hardest-hit European countries have been continuing in the 10-15% range. In fact, Belgium, Italy, France and UK's death rates have exceeded an alarming 13%. Fortunately, Germany and Switzerland have been maintaining significantly lower death rates. Iran's rate has been holding steady at around 6%, while Canada, Russia and Turkey are doing well. 

Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak around the world, it's too premature to confirm the current worldwide recovery rate of 27.4% as a good base rate that all individual country rates would be compared with. Similarly, despite the explosive outbreak in the US, its recency makes it difficult to confirm the current low rate of 9.7% as its baseline recovery rate. Germany, Spain and Switzerland have been registering better recovery rates than the other European countries. Obviously, Russia and Turkey are struggling. Brazil and Canada are getting better while Iran has been maintaining a high recovery rate. The UK situation is still evolving so its rate is as unpredictable as that of the US.  

Active Cases -- Since the US situation is very fluid, its active cases account for 85%, though down from 92% two weeks ago. Switzerland and Germany have been keeping the active caseloads more manageable than Spain, Italy, France Belgium and Canada where the cases, though trending downward, range between 50% and 60%. The countries with more recent surge, including the UK, Netherlands, Turkey and Russia, have been dealing with high active cases. Since Iran has peaked, its active cases are under 20%, which is one bright spot amid this mayhem.

Serious/Critical Cases -- Some of the hardest-hit European countries are still faced with 3% to 4% serious/critical cases. Brazil has a mind-boggling high rate of 17%. Of course, the lack of uniform guidelines to define this category often makes the comparison somewhat apples-to-oranges. Case in point: Canada's 1.3%, Turkey's 1.8%, UK's 1.1% and Italy's 1.2% rates could be anomalous.  

Tests and Positive Cases -- The US is the only country to have administered all over 4M tests, followed by Russia (2.4M), Germany (2.1M) and Italy (1.6M). France has the highest positive test rate at 34% while Spain, Belgium, Iran and UK are registering in the low-to-mid 20's. Netherlands, the US and Brazil are not too far behind either. As usual, Germany and Switzerland have significantly lower positive test rates. The reason Russia and Canada have low rates is that their tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population. Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic population only.  

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Comparing Coronavirus Stats – New York City vs. Rest of NYS

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The line graph (top) shows while the New York City curve has just started to flatten, the rest of the NYS curve has been flattening for a while (since 4/11). 

New York City is the home to a large minority population, especially African Americans and Latino Americans. This rapidly increasing divergence between the two curves results from the fact that the city's minority population has been more severely impacted by this outbreak than their counterparts. 

On 3/18 (not shown), the split between NYC and the rest of NYS was 644 to 730 (difference of -86 cases), growing to 1,339 to 1,043 (+296) the next day. The same trend has been continuing ever since; for instance, the difference grew to 10,483 on 3/31 and accelerated to 13,071 and 16,158 on 4/5 and 4/11, respectively. The difference has however tapered in the last three days, indicating the simultaneous flattening of curves.

By studying the two data lines mutually exclusively, one can easily come to the conclusion that the rest of NYS had peaked in early April, while NYC has just started to peak. By early next week, both curves are expected to show clear logarithmic slopes, meaning they will further tilt down.

The regression graph (bottom) shows the rapid acceleration of NYC cases: between 80K and 115K, the data points were pushed above the regression line. Now that the acceleration has significantly tapered, the five most recent data points are residing below the line. 

My blog post on 4/9 showed how the devil was getting frightened. Today, the devil is totally cornered. 

Humans will always win the war with the devil!

Data Source: 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Analysis of the Closed-out Coronavirus Cases – the Global Case

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The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 25K coronavirus cases (as of 8pm on 4/17). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would simply skew the real stats. Also, the UK hasn't reported the updated recoveries, so the analysis of their closed-out stats remains incomplete, too. The worldwide coronavirus cases have now exceeded a mammoth 2.28M.

Highlights of the Closed-out Cases

1. Of the 724,509 closed-out cases worldwide, the split between deaths and recoveries stands at 21:79. Since the world has gradually been coming to grips with more effective treatments, the recovery rate has steadily climbed, which is one positive patch amid this ongoing pandemic.

2. Obviously, the US remains the epicenter of the outbreak with 709K confirmed and 97K closed-out cases (32% and 13% of the worldwide totals, respectively). Unfortunately, the US death rate (38%) has far outpaced the worldwide average (21%). Of course, since the death stats are instantaneously recorded while the recovery is generally a slow process - often a lengthy one - the current US rates reflect that initial imbalance which will be significantly moderated in coming months.

3. Of the three worst-hit countries in Europe - Spain, Italy and France - Spain's rates are trending in line with the worldwide averages while Italy and France demonstrate heart-breaking high death rates, considering they have already gone past the initial imbalance phase.

4. Though the surge in the UK occurred much later than its worst-hit European counterparts, it has lately been catching up. Granted, their recovery stats are not usable, but the actual death rate (total deaths to total cases) of 13% points to the ongoing mayhem there.

5. Despite having to deal with 141K confirmed cases, Germany has been doing a phenomenal job in taking care of their infected population, as evidenced in their very low death rate. Of the 87K closed-out cases, 83K have recovered -- truly awesome job!

6. Belgium has been struggling with ballooning deaths every day. Of the 36% closed-out cases, they have reported a death rate of 39%. Then again, their situation is somewhat analogous to the current US case: the initial imbalance needs to be heeded to.

7. Switzerland, like Germany, has risen to the occasion. A 93% recovery rate is really something to write home about!

8. Lately, Brazil and Canada are being bombarded with new cases, but they seem to be managing their sickened population better than many other countries across the globe. Russia and Netherlands' closed-out stats are incomplete at this point. 

9. Last but not least, Iran. Amid all those economic sanctions they have a low death rate of 8%. I am confused. This is where analysis turns into paralysis.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
            

Analysis of the Closed-out Coronavirus Cases – the US Case

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Out of the 708,823 cases nationwide, only 96,723 (14%) cases have closed. The closed cases comprise the sum of the total deaths and recovered, with national averages of 38% and 62%, respectively.

Of course, this analysis is meaningful for the four states -- NY, NJ, CA and WA -- that have peaked. 

New York, the epicenter of the US outbreak with 234K (33%) cases, has been in close alignment with the national averages, with a split of 42% and 58%.   

Though New Jersey has peaked, it has reported only 5,111 (6.5%) closed cases. Based on such a small sample, it is too premature to draw a meaningful conclusion of their split, though they have a very high death rate thus far.

Although California was one of the early victims of the outbreak, it has done a better job (than the eastern states) due to early lock-down. Despite a smaller sample of 2,371 closed cases, the split seems reasonable, i.e., in line with the national averages.

Despite the early jolt, the state of Washington has done a commendable job of not letting it go out of control. In terms of the total number cases, it has dropped from number one spot two months ago to number fourteen with a mere 11,152 cases, representing 1.6% of the national total. Of the 2,298 closed-out cases, they have a 75% recovery rate -- a true achievement indeed!

MA and MI have diametrically opposite splits, while PA and FL are somewhere in between. LA, IL, GA, TX, MD, IN and CT are going through the initial surges so more time and data are needed before stats are considered reliable or even inferential.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Stats – the Global Case – 04/16/2020 Update

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Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 25K coronavirus cases (as of 8pm on 4/16). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would simply skew the real stats. The worldwide total has now exceeded a mammoth 2.18M cases. The US has been the epicenter of this pandemic outbreak (since 3/25) with nearly 675K cases (31% of the worldwide total). Italy, Spain and France have peaked as their new daily cases, based on 2-day moving averages, have lately been flat-lining or trending down. Spain remains at the top of the list with 185K, followed by Italy, France and Germany with 169K, 165K and 138K, respectively. Of late, the UK has been climbing the chart quite vigorously with 103K cases and overtaking Iran, one of the original victims.

Deaths -- Though the US death rate of 5.1% has been below the worldwide average of 6.7% (well above the WHO's estimate of 3.4%), some of the hardest-hit European countries have been continuing in the 10-14% range. In fact, Belgium, Italy and UK's death rates have exceeded an alarming 13%. Fortunately, Germany and Switzerland have been maintaining significantly lower death rates. Iran's rate has been holding steady at around 6%, while Canada, Russia and Turkey are doing well. 

Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak around the world, it's too premature to confirm the current worldwide recovery rate of 25.1% as a good base rate that all individual country rates would be compared with. Similarly, despite the explosive outbreak in the US, its recency makes it difficult to confirm the current low rate of 8.5% as its baseline recovery rate. Germany, Spain and Switzerland have been registering better recovery rates than the other European countries. Obviously, Netherlands, Russia and Turkey are struggling. Brazil and Canada are getting better while Iran has been maintaining a high recovery rate. The UK situation is still evolving so its rate is unpredictable at this point.  

Active Cases -- Since the US situation is very fluid, its active cases account for 86%, though down from 92% a week ago. The active percent in Europe remains high, generally in the 60% to 70% range. The countries with more recent surge, including the UK, Netherlands, Turkey and Russia, have active cases in the upper 80's. Canada has been steadily trending down. Since Iran has peaked, its active cases are well under 30%, which is one bright spot amid this mayhem.

Serious/Critical Cases -- Some of the hardest-hit European countries are still faced with 3% to 5% serious/critical cases. Brazil has a mind-boggling high rate of 21.8%. Of course, the lack of uniform guidelines to define this category often makes the comparison somewhat apples-to-oranges. Case in point: Switzerland's 1.4%, UK's 1.5% and Italy's 1.7% rates could be anomalous.  

Tests and Positive Cases -- The US is the only country to have administered over 3M (3.4M as of today) tests, followed by Germany (1.7M), Russia (1.6M) and Italy (1.2M). France and Brazil have high positive rates -- nearly 50% --Germany and Switzerland are showing far lower positive rates. UK, USA, Spain and the Netherlands have been recording very high positive rates as well. The reason Russia and Canada have low rates is that their tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population. Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic population only.  

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

USA is behind in Coronavirus Testing. Time to Outsource Partial Testing to Non-profit Organizations like American Red Cross, etc.

Since the population of the US is significantly larger than the European countries, the equalizing metric in this analysis is: "Tests/1M Pop".  

Based on this metric, of the three hardest-hit countries in Europe -- Italy, Spain and France -- France is the only one that lags behind the US in coronavirus testing. In fact, Italy and Spain have picked up significant momentum in recent weeks. Germany has used a more structured approach to contain this outbreak from the beginning, while Switzerland has been phenomenal in testing its population. Even Canada has done a better job than the US. Unfortunately, the UK, Belgium and Netherlands have been lagging behind their neighbors.

Before opening up the non-essential services sector, the US needs to test its population, to avoid having to encounter a second wave of outbreaks, which could be deadlier. 

Ideally, the US should mobilize the well-established non-profit organizations like American Red Cross, Amnesty International USA, Planned Parenthood, Human Rights Watch, YMCA/YWCA, Food for the Poor, etc. to handle the coronavirus testing, thereby freeing up the hospitals so they can focus on what they do the best -- taking care of the patients. Even the Gates Foundation could be in the mix given their expertise in vaccinations around the world. Considering the current situation, it makes no sense to over-crowd the hospital emergency rooms with those seeking primarily coronavirus testing.  

If UPS and Fedex can handle 10X to 50X packages during the busy holiday season with temporary help, these great non-profit outfits can also handle this on-going testing juggernaut with temps. This outsourcing will not only create thousands of temporary jobs, but will also help train new healthcare graduates on-the-job. 

I disagree with those who are fiercely advocating  outsourcing of coronavirus testing to tech giants like Amazon and Google -- for one simple reason: They are in the business of making money (which is fine!) so they do not understand what caring (firing is not caring!) really means.  

Of course, the testing must be systematic with a meaningful segmentation plan, starting with those with existing jobs (see the post below).

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Also Read
We Need a Meaningful "Test and Return to Work" Segmentation Plan to Avoid a Bigger Rebound Disaster

USA has Bigger Coronavirus Numbers but Smaller Effective Rates

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The above table lists the five countries with a minimum of 100K Coronavirus cases (as of 4/12, 8PM). The US has 560K cases while Spain has roughly 167K, followed by Italy, France and Germany. In terms of the actual number, the difference between the US and Spain is a factor of 3.36, while the difference between the US and Germany is even a larger factor of 4.38. 

Then again, the US population is 7.07 times bigger than Spain's and 3.95 times bigger than Germany's. So, does it make sense to compare the total US cases with Spain's or Germany's? The answer is no because the comparison is apples to oranges. 

We have to compare normalized values (or statistically significant metrics). That is why, the normalized values like "Total Cases / 1M Pop" and "Total Deaths / 1M Pop" provide better comparative yardsticks. Developing a testing mechanism for 331M population is a logistical nightmare. 

Total Cases per 1M Population -- Based on these normalized values, the US has been doing a much better job than Spain, Italy and France. Germany has done an excellent job thus far and is the front-runner. The US's normalized value of 1,692 vastly outperforms Spain's 3,568, Italy's 2,586 and France's 2,031. Again, Germany has been outperforming the US.

Total Deaths per 1M Population -- The normalized US death rate is 67 vis-a-vis Spain's 368 (a factor of 5.5). Likewise, Italy and France have much higher rates as well. Again, Germany has been phenomenal, maintaining a fairly low rate of 36.

The journalists who are tirelessly pointing fingers at our larger numbers fail to understand the apples-to-apples comparisons. 

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

- Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

We Need a Meaningful "Test and Return to Work" Segmentation Plan to Avoid a Bigger Rebound Disaster

As we move towards opening up the non-essential sector of the economy, we must embark on a meaningful "Test and Return to Work" segmentation plan, to avoid having to deal with a bigger seismic outbreak on the rebound. 

In order to optimally use the available testing resources we must continue to attach the highest importance to the symptomatic referrals from the medical community so the humanitarian aspect takes precedence over the economic activity. 

By the same token, if we allow people to show up at work without proper testing, the second wave could be more disastrous. Even in the non-essential sector since some industries are more important than others, the plan must be administered at the state level as the individual states are best judges of such priorities.  

Here is the "Test and Return to Work" segmentation plan I would propose:

1. Since the stats show that under-35 is the "least" risk working segment, those who still have jobs must be tested ahead of all others. Those who have been laid off must be left out to start with. We just have to make sure the laid off people are receiving unemployment benefits so they are not out in the cold. Between the stimulus and unemployment benefit, they have to temporarily adjust  while this situation is worked out. Alongside the still-employed, the full-time self-employed who are worse off today must also be included in this segment. Needless to say, those who are negative get to return to work immediately. The positive population starts/continues treatment.

2. The next in line should be the 36-to-50 age category. Again, the same principle of still-employed and self-employed will comprise this category. The testing outcome is the final determinant.

3. All new and recalled employees under the age of 50 will comprise this segment, receiving full priority for test and return to work at this point.

4. Then, the 51-to-67 age category should be considered. The above employment principle applies as well. The reason we need to stop at age 67 during the first iteration is that the 67+ folks qualify for full social security benefits as well as Medicare. By no means, I am suggesting that the 67+ should be forced out of the labor force, but they must be at the back end of the queue so the system remains more risk-tolerant and need-based.

Ideally, between May 1 and September 30, 2020, no one should return to work without having undergone the type of comprehensive testing that would ensure the lasting health and safety of the American people.

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Stats – the US Case – 04/07/2020 Update

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

Total Cases -- While the US outbreak started in Seattle, WA, New York City has been the epicenter for the last three weeks, accounting for 35.2% of the total cases. New Jersey was somewhat late to the saga but has gained significant momentum in the last two weeks, thus moving up the ladder to the 2nd position with 11.3% of the total cases. Washington, the original front-runner, has now fallen to the 11th position, even below Illinois and Georgia. California, on the other hand, has dropped from 2nd to the 4th position, with 4.3% of the total cases. Michigan, Louisiana and Massachusetts have steadily trended up, now accounting for 4.8%, 4.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Given the limited number of new cases lately, Texas is expected to overtake Washington tomorrow. 

Total Deaths -- New York now accounts for 43% of total deaths in the US, despite owning 35% of the cases, proving how deadly the outbreak is. Fortunately, New Jersey's death rate has been lagging its proportional share of total cases. Conversely, Michigan has been registering higher death rate than their share of total cases. California has remained conforming. Washington is still reeling from the initial jolt of fatalities so their death rate has remained higher than their share of cases. Lately, Louisiana has been another sad story with very high deaths, thereby owning 4.6% of all deaths, despite recording 4.1% of the total cases. Likewise, Georgia accounts for 2.6% of total deaths but owns 2.2% of all cases thus far.

Active Cases -- Though the outbreak has been peaking in Europe, it is too premature to talk about a peak in the US. Therefore, the total cases and active cases are moving in tandem. For instance, New York accounts for 35% of the total cases and owns 33% of all active cases. Even Washington and California -- where the US outbreak started -- totals and active cases are still in lockstep. 

Total Tests -- Since NYC is still the epicenter of the outbreak, it's share of tests is the largest in the country, as the tests are administered strictly on symptomatic basis to effectively manage the ongoing paucity of the available testing kits. Unfortunately, tests are seriously lagging in Michigan, New Jersey and Louisiana. Given the demography of Florida, the Governor of Florida has been very proactive in negotiating and administering the tests.  

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

The Silver Lining in US Coronavirus Stats

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

The above table identifies the countries with a minimum of 10K confirmed cases. China and South Korea have been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would skew the real stats. South Korea, on the other hand, is out of the woods, with only 47 new cases. All said and done, the world should seriously study the South Korean mitigation model (they have done a marvelous job!).

The silver lining in the US stats (as of 9pm ET):   

1. The US has performed 1.9M tests, identifying (and confirming) 365K cases -- in line with the (weighted) average of this subset. The US rate, thus far, is significantly lower than the other advanced European countries like Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The UK situation is still emerging, while Iran's system is not comparable. Canada's rate has been surprisingly low (includes the asymptomatic population?).

2. In terms of the death rate, the US rate is significantly lower than the comparable average. The death rates of Italy, Spain, France, the UK and the Netherlands are at least three times higher. Even Belgium, Brazil and Switzerland are projecting higher rates.

3. It's too premature to talk about the US recovery rate. Therefore, the US rate cannot be compared with the hardest-hit European countries (minus the UK and Portugal) due to the timing of the outbreak. The Netherlands' surprisingly low recovery rate could be an outlier, perhaps stemming from an asymmetric definition.

4. The critical population rate of the US is significantly lower than Europe's, especially Spain, France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. Iran is still confronted with a large critically ill population. Fortunately, Italy's recovery rate has been trending up, while it's critically ill population is steadily declining.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

- Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com