Coronavirus – How does the New Lineup Look after NY and NJ?

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The lineup after New York and New Jersey is currently spearheaded by Massachusetts with 55K cases and followed by Illinois (44K), California (43K) and Pennsylvania (43K). Lately, Michigan has seen an explosion in new infections, and at this current pace, it is expected to overtake at least California later next week considering that the latter has tapered. Florida has also been gaining momentum.

Michigan is faced with an alarming death rate of 8.8%, way above the national average of 5.6%. Though Connecticut has the second highest direct death rate, it has the highest normalized rate (deaths per 1M population). Despite a large immigrant population, California has managed to keep its coronavirus fatalities low due to its aggressive restrictions. Also, the fact that California has a low normalized death rate further confirms the effectiveness of the restrictions in place. Though Louisiana and Massachusetts have high death rates (along with high normalized infection rates), the effects of their intensified testing will alleviate the immediate danger.  

Though Texas has the lowest death rate, it lags behind in testing, which is troublesome. Ohio also lags behind in testing, thus facing a more serious situation than that of Texas as it already has a much higher death rate. Given its demography, Florida needs to maintain its current restrictions at least thru 5/31, as well as significantly increase testing, otherwise its death rate could promptly spike above the national average. Illinois, California and Pennsylvania should follow Louisiana and Massachusetts' recent testing models.

The fact that the active caseloads remain very high (at 80-90%), with a high national average of 82%, points to two immediate needs: significant bump in testing and gradual loosening of restrictions in keeping with the CDC's new guidelines.

Stay safe!

Data Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com   
    

Analysis of the Closed-out Coronavirus Cases – the US Case

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Out of the 708,823 cases nationwide, only 96,723 (14%) cases have closed. The closed cases comprise the sum of the total deaths and recovered, with national averages of 38% and 62%, respectively.

Of course, this analysis is meaningful for the four states -- NY, NJ, CA and WA -- that have peaked. 

New York, the epicenter of the US outbreak with 234K (33%) cases, has been in close alignment with the national averages, with a split of 42% and 58%.   

Though New Jersey has peaked, it has reported only 5,111 (6.5%) closed cases. Based on such a small sample, it is too premature to draw a meaningful conclusion of their split, though they have a very high death rate thus far.

Although California was one of the early victims of the outbreak, it has done a better job (than the eastern states) due to early lock-down. Despite a smaller sample of 2,371 closed cases, the split seems reasonable, i.e., in line with the national averages.

Despite the early jolt, the state of Washington has done a commendable job of not letting it go out of control. In terms of the total number cases, it has dropped from number one spot two months ago to number fourteen with a mere 11,152 cases, representing 1.6% of the national total. Of the 2,298 closed-out cases, they have a 75% recovery rate -- a true achievement indeed!

MA and MI have diametrically opposite splits, while PA and FL are somewhere in between. LA, IL, GA, TX, MD, IN and CT are going through the initial surges so more time and data are needed before stats are considered reliable or even inferential.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Stats – the Global Case – 04/11/2020 Update

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 15K cases (as of 8pm on 4/11). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would skew the real stats. The worldwide total has now exceeded a mammoth 1.78M cases. The US has been the epicenter of this pandemic outbreak (for a while now) with nearly 533K cases (30% of the worldwide total). Though some parts of Europe have yet to peak, Italy, Spain and France may have peaked as their new daily cases have lately been flat-lining or trending down. Spain remains at the top of the list with 163K, followed by Italy, France and Germany with 152K, 129K and 125K, respectively. Of late, the UK has been climbing the chart quite vigorously, overtaking Iran, one of the original victims.

Deaths -- Though the US death rate of 3.9% has been far below the worldwide average of 6.11% (well above the WHO's estimate of 3.4%), some of the hardest-hit European countries have been continuing in the 10-12% range. In fact, Italy's death rate of 12.8% is just heart-breaking. Fortunately, Germany, Switzerland and Portugal have been maintaining significantly lower death rates. Lately, the death rate of UK has exploded to 12.5%. Iran's rate has been holding steady at around 6%.  

Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak around the world, it's too premature to confirm the current worldwide recovery rate of 22.6%. Similarly, despite the explosive outbreak in the US, its recency makes it difficult to estimate a reasonable recovery rate. Switzerland and Germany have been registering better recovery rates than the other European countries, although Italy, France and Belgium are still struggling with lower rates. Turkey and Brazil have very low rates as well. The UK situation is still evolving so its rate is unpredictable at this point.  

Active Cases -- Since the US situation is very fluid, its active cases account for 90%. The active percent in Europe remains high, generally in the 60% to 70% range. The countries with more recent surge, including the UK, Turkey, Portugal and Brazil, have active cases in the low to mid-90% range. Canada has a high 70% rate as well. Since Iran has more or less peaked, its active cases have trended down to 34%.  

Serious/Critical Cases -- Some of the hardest-hit European countries are still faced with 4% to 6% serious/critical cases. Iran continues to deal with a high rate of 5.5%. Of course, the lack of uniform guidelines to define this category often makes the comparison somewhat apples-to-oranges. Case in point: Brazil's 1.4% and the UK's 2.0%.  

Tests and Positive Cases -- The US is the only country to have administered over 2M (2.7M as of today) tests, followed by Germany with 1.3M and Italy nearly 1M. While the US has a high positive rate of 20%, Germany and Portugal are showing far lower positive rates. France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands have been recording very high positive rates. The reason Canada has a low rate of 5.8% is that its tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population as well. 

Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic population only.  

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com