Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak in Western Europe

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Highlights:

1. France -- France is the hardest-hit country in Western Europe, with 160K confirmed cases and 21K deaths, next only to Spain and Italy in the whole of Europe. As in other major European countries, both infection and death rates among immigrants are markedly higher than the rest of the population. Also, France has been seriously lagging behind in tests. Fortunately, since peaking on 4/14, France's daily new cases have been trending down.  

2. United Kingdom -- Though the surge in the UK occurred a couple of weeks after France, the severity of the outbreak has already pushed its death rate close to that of France. Despite the severity of the outbreak, the most recent data are pointing to stabilization. We have to wait a few more days before we conclude if the peak is around. Lack of testing is a serious issue. 

3. Belgium -- Sadly, Belgium has the highest death rate -- a truly heart-breaking 15% -- among all European nations. Therefore, Belgium's infection and death rates (per million people) are also the highest in Western Europe. Hopefully, their recent push for intensified testing will help bring these unfortunate rates down in coming weeks. Given a much smaller population of under 12M (as compared to France and UK with 60M apiece), they should be able to extend the testing to the entire population.

4. Netherlands -- The bi-modal distribution of their daily cases makes it premature to draw any conclusion as to the occurrence of the real peak. Of course, the good news is, Netherlands has the lowest death rates -- 11.6% and 237/million population, respectively -- in Western Europe. Like Belgium, Netherlands has a relatively small population of 18M so it needs to extend the testing to the whole population. Given its current bi-modal situation, it could be more vulnerable to a renewed outbreak.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com