Coronavirus Pandemic – The Second Wave in Germany Worsens by the Day

While the initial outbreak in Germany was not as dreadful as the other hardest-hit countries in Europe, such as Italy, France, Spain, or the UK, the ongoing second wave has been awful, both in terms of the number of cases and death tolls. 

During the mid-summer month of July, when the pandemic was in remission, the daily cases averaged a meager 466. With the advent of fall, the pandemic returned in full fury as the averages started rising: 1,561 in September and 7,404 in October. Then, November (though 12/5) turned more horrific, and the average rocketed to 18,137, a whopping 39-fold increase from dormant July. The cases exceeded 20K in each of the recent three days. 

Likewise, the daily deaths averaged a mere five in July, rising to 31 in October, and soaring to 230 thus far in Nov-Dec. The fact that the daily tolls have consistently exceeded 400 in recent days and new weekly highs are being recorded perhaps points to a bleak winter until the vaccines are widely available and accepted. The 7-day moving average trendline also confirms the rapidly rising trend, despite the weekend reporting anomalies. 

The regression graph shows that the death rate subsided in the summer, falling significantly below the linear trendline. Unfortunately, as the fall arrived, it promptly turned into an exponential trend, meaning the death rate has been far surpassing the growth in cases. The exponential trend's r-squared value is 0.971 (not shown), which handily beats the r-squared value of the linear trend.

Though Germany has registered over 1.2M confirmed cases, it's still number eleven on the chart, well below the five worst-hit European countries, both in cases and deaths. Moreover, it has one of the lowest death rates globally, coupled with a low positivity rate. Despite the surge, its active status has been well-managed at 27%, while France records at 90%. Surprisingly, its population testing credentials have been lagging behind those of its neighbors.  

Given the surging wave, Germany needs to authorize the emergency use of the available vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. 

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Germany 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – 50M Cases Globally and 10M in the US

 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Today, the coronavirus pandemic handed in two more grim milestones: The world and the USA registered 50M and 10M cases, respectively, silencing the critics and non-believers of the pandemic or of the horror it has brought to humanity. Unfortunately, the US thus far accounts for 20% of all cases and 19% of all deaths.

The above graphs show how a second wave has been tormenting the world, not only in terms of the explosion of cases but also in rapidly increasing death tolls. During the past summer (June-September 2020), the daily cases used to average around 300K cases. Lately, the average has been doubling -- a tumultuous second wave indeed!

Of course, there is a silver lining amid this grave scenario, which is the low 3% worldwide death rate -- a significantly lower rate than the initial rate that devasted the world during the first wave, thanks to innovative drugmakers like Gilead and Regeneron, coupled with the more accessible ventilators.

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As indicated above, the US just registered 10M confirmed cases, remaining at the top of the hardest-hit list, followed by India with 8.5M and Brazil with 5.5M. Fortunately, the rest of the hardest-hits have not reached the 3M mark yet. 

Though India has three million more cases than Brazil, it has recorded 35K fewer deaths. Despite a fast-declining death rate, Mexico continues to deal with a high ten percentage. Iran's death rate remains conspicuously high as well. 

Due to the inadequate testing, the Latin American hardest-hits have also been confronted with some of the world's highest positivity rates.

Data Source: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

 

Coronavirus Outbreak – Total Tests and Positive Cases are Negatively Correlated

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Sample Extraction: 
1. Worldwide sample
2. Countries with total cases > 25K
3. Tests per million population > 10K

Given these criteria, many densely populated countries like Brazil, India, Iran, Mexico, etc. have been excluded. Since China does not disclose its testing credentials, it didn't make the list either.   


Highlights...

1. The correlation matrix (bottom graphic) shows that the total number of tests administered and the rate of positivity are negatively correlated, meaning more tests will not necessarily produce more positive cases. Of course, certain countries might buck this norm. For instance, though the USA has thus far performed the maximum number of tests, it has a high positive rate at 14%, defying the norm. Conversely, Russia, Germany and Italy -- the next three highest testing countries -- have positive rates that conform quite closely to the norm.

2. The total cases and total tests are highly correlated as only the symptomatic candidates -- a medically homogeneous population -- are being tested. This correlation will decline over time as the testing extends to some of the asymptomatic portions of the population as well. 

3. The total tests are also highly correlated with total deaths (0.7822) and active cases (0.8903), proving that the more serious or critical candidates have been receiving priority in testing. Considering the critical nature of those cases, they also remain active for a longer period of time.

4. As expected, the countries with the lowest actual death rates (total deaths to total cases) have also the lowest death rates per million population. For instance, the three countries with 1% death rates -- Saudi Arabia, Russia and Chile -- have the lowest population death rates at 7, 14 and 17, respectively.

5. Likewise, the countries with the highest actual death rates -- Belgium, France, Spain and the UK -- have the highest population death rates (> 400 per million) as well.

Stay well!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – Is the Age Distribution Meaningful?

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There has been a lot of talk about the age distribution of the coronavirus cases and deaths in the hardest-hit countries in Europe. Since Spain provides a large enough sample to represent those countries, especially France, Germany, Italy and the UK, it has been used here to make the empirical case.

1. The combined age groups of 0 to 9 and 10 to 19 account for less than 1% of the total cases while the fatality rate is almost null at 0.04%, indicating that the youngest folks have more or less "herd immunity" against the coronavirus. Thus, the asymptomatic populations in these two age groups -- without any underlying medical conditions -- do not require any immediate testing whatsoever. 

2. While the infection rates between the ages of 20 to 39 progressively move up, the cumulative fatality rate again is negligible at 0.46%. Though these two age groups do not have herd immunity, the asymptomatic candidates are nonetheless "non-priority" in terms of the first round of testing.  

3. Though the infection rate in the next age group of 40 to 49 is quite high at nearly 15%, the fatality rate is remarkably low at a mere 1.07%. Hence, the asymptomatic folks in this age group should be considered "low priority" in testing. 

4. While the overall infection rate is even higher for those between the ages of 50 and 59, the fatality rate there is still quite low at 3.29%. Therefore, the asymptomatic population here should receive "low to moderate" priority in testing.

5. Though the mortality rate in the 60 to 69 age group is much higher, it is nonetheless significantly lower than those in the 70+ groups. As such, the asymptomatic folks  in this age group should have "moderate" priority in testing.

6. Given the high mortality rates in the 70+ age groups, these folks are at the highest risk. Thus, the asymptomatic folks must receive "high" priority in testing, right after  -- or alongside -- all of the symptomatic folks. 

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Spain


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Analyzing Coronavirus Stats – the European Case – 04/29/2020 Update

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Highlights...


1. Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit European countries, those with at least 20K cases. Italy, Spain, France, UK and Germany have peaked as their new cases, based on 2-day moving averages, have been trending down. Spain remains at the top of the European list with 237K cases, followed by Italy, France, UK and Germany with 204K, 166K, 165K and 161K cases, respectively. Since Russia's surge has been more recent, in the last 10 days its cases have more than doubled. Belgium and the Netherlands have also experienced significant jumps in caseloads.

2. Deaths -- Though some of these European countries have been continuing in the 10-15% range, the UK and Belgium have hit an alarming 16% death rate. Fortunately, Germany, Switzerland, Portugal and Ireland have significantly lower death rates in 4 to 6% ranges, well below the worldwide average of 7%. Obviously, it's too premature to talk about Russia's death rate due to its more recent surge.

3. Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak across Europe, the country-wise recovery rates are all over the map, with Germany and Switzerland in the mid-'70s while Sweden and Portugal are struggling with extremely low rates. Lately, Ireland and Spain started showing some improvements, but Belgium, France and Italy are still stuck in 20's and 30's. Again, the Russian situation is still evolving so its recovery rate remains unpredictable at this point.  

4. Active Cases -- Switzerland and Germany have been keeping the active caseloads more manageable than the rest. Ireland and Spain are showing improvements as well. It's good to see that the active rates of Belgium, Italy and France have already fallen below the worldwide average of 62%. As expected, the countries with more recent surge, especially Portugal and Russia, have been dealing with very high active rates. 

5. Tests and Positive Cases -- Russia is the only European country to have administered well over 3M tests, followed by Germany (2.5M), Italy (1.9M) and Spain (1.4M). France has the highest positive test rate at 36% while Belgium and UK are registering in the low 20's. Sweden, Netherlands and Spain are showing up in upper teens as well. As usual, Germany, Portugal, Switzerland, Italy and Ireland are showing green shoots, with significantly lower positives. The reason Russia has a very low rate is that its tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population. In terms of the normalized rates (per million populations), Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland are well ahead of the rest with 30K testing rates. Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic populations only.  

Stay safe!

Data Source: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 



-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Evaluating Scenarios and Outcomes Related to Re-opening the Economy

Since we are ready to open up the non-essential sectors of the economy, we must be prudent and act on the advice of our great CDC scientists -- instead of politicians worried about their electoral prospects in November -- to avoid having to walk into a much bigger disaster.

At this point, we have three basic choices...

1. Test Employed People and Let "Negatives" Return to Work -- Gradually open the economy by allowing only the employed folks, who also test negative, to return to work. Of course, given the size of this population, we need a well-thought-out segmentation plan backed by a risk-tolerant model (see my prior post below for details). This approach (green trendline) might quickly reduce the current 2,000+/- daily death toll to a projected 1,000+/- in 30 days, with a steadily declining trend. If we stay this course, the next flu season, which could be much worse as the CDC projects, will also be far better managed.      

2. Let All Asymptomatic People Return to Work -- This second option, perhaps the likeliest scenario, is to allow, even encourage, the asymptomatic people to return to (or look for) work. This may be performed by "Tele Health," allowing private physicians to check (via telephone or video call) and certify the people to return. This practice carries an inherent risk to the employer as many returning employees might easily pass as asymptomatic during the incubation period. This inherent risk aided by people's underlying medical conditions might not help lower the current rate. The flattening curve (blue trendline) captures this phenomenon, meaning the curve continues to go sideways, rather than declining. In order to lower the overall risk, the certifying physicians must be allowed to consider patients' medical conditions (diabetes, hypertension, cancer, etc.). Of course, this approach is nothing but kicking the can down the road.    

3. Let the Governors Decide (en Masse) -- This is the worst possible scenario with serious negative outcomes, perhaps leading to workplace chaos, high absenteeism and employee turnovers. This unnecessary exuberance will further spike infections and, consequently, more deaths as well. Obviously, expecting the non-healthcare employees to use masks (long-term) will have very negative effects on work. The red trendline loosely replicates this dangerous scenario. This dangerous approach may trigger a more serious second wave in combination with the next flu season. At this point, the governors must consider the health and safety of the 99% rather than paying too much attention to the 1%. The 1% can always flee to Hamptons and Catskill ... didn't we just see that?

Stay safe.

Data Source: 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States

Also Read
We Need a Meaningful "Test and Return to Work" Segmentation Plan to Avoid a Bigger Rebound Disaster

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
     

Analyzing Coronavirus Stats – the Global Case – 04/23/2020 Update

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Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 25K coronavirus cases (as of 8pm on 4/23). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would simply skew the real stats. The worldwide total has now exceeded a mammoth 2.71M cases. The US has still been the epicenter of this pandemic outbreak with nearly 880K cases (32.4% of the worldwide total). Italy, Spain and France have peaked as their new cases, based on 2-day moving averages, have been flat-lining or trending down. Spain remains at the top of the European list with 213K cases, followed by Italy, France and Germany with 190K, 158K and 153K cases, respectively. In last weeks, the UK has experienced cases skyrocketing to 138K cases, vigorously overtaking Turkey and Iran.

Deaths -- Though the US death rate of 5.7% has been below the worldwide average of 7.0% (well above the WHO's estimate of 3.4%), some of the hardest-hit European countries have been continuing in the 10-15% range. In fact, Belgium, Italy, France and UK's death rates have exceeded an alarming 13%. Fortunately, Germany and Switzerland have been maintaining significantly lower death rates. Iran's rate has been holding steady at around 6%, while Canada, Russia and Turkey are doing well. 

Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak around the world, it's too premature to confirm the current worldwide recovery rate of 27.4% as a good base rate that all individual country rates would be compared with. Similarly, despite the explosive outbreak in the US, its recency makes it difficult to confirm the current low rate of 9.7% as its baseline recovery rate. Germany, Spain and Switzerland have been registering better recovery rates than the other European countries. Obviously, Russia and Turkey are struggling. Brazil and Canada are getting better while Iran has been maintaining a high recovery rate. The UK situation is still evolving so its rate is as unpredictable as that of the US.  

Active Cases -- Since the US situation is very fluid, its active cases account for 85%, though down from 92% two weeks ago. Switzerland and Germany have been keeping the active caseloads more manageable than Spain, Italy, France Belgium and Canada where the cases, though trending downward, range between 50% and 60%. The countries with more recent surge, including the UK, Netherlands, Turkey and Russia, have been dealing with high active cases. Since Iran has peaked, its active cases are under 20%, which is one bright spot amid this mayhem.

Serious/Critical Cases -- Some of the hardest-hit European countries are still faced with 3% to 4% serious/critical cases. Brazil has a mind-boggling high rate of 17%. Of course, the lack of uniform guidelines to define this category often makes the comparison somewhat apples-to-oranges. Case in point: Canada's 1.3%, Turkey's 1.8%, UK's 1.1% and Italy's 1.2% rates could be anomalous.  

Tests and Positive Cases -- The US is the only country to have administered all over 4M tests, followed by Russia (2.4M), Germany (2.1M) and Italy (1.6M). France has the highest positive test rate at 34% while Spain, Belgium, Iran and UK are registering in the low-to-mid 20's. Netherlands, the US and Brazil are not too far behind either. As usual, Germany and Switzerland have significantly lower positive test rates. The reason Russia and Canada have low rates is that their tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population. Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic population only.  

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak in Western Europe

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Highlights:

1. France -- France is the hardest-hit country in Western Europe, with 160K confirmed cases and 21K deaths, next only to Spain and Italy in the whole of Europe. As in other major European countries, both infection and death rates among immigrants are markedly higher than the rest of the population. Also, France has been seriously lagging behind in tests. Fortunately, since peaking on 4/14, France's daily new cases have been trending down.  

2. United Kingdom -- Though the surge in the UK occurred a couple of weeks after France, the severity of the outbreak has already pushed its death rate close to that of France. Despite the severity of the outbreak, the most recent data are pointing to stabilization. We have to wait a few more days before we conclude if the peak is around. Lack of testing is a serious issue. 

3. Belgium -- Sadly, Belgium has the highest death rate -- a truly heart-breaking 15% -- among all European nations. Therefore, Belgium's infection and death rates (per million people) are also the highest in Western Europe. Hopefully, their recent push for intensified testing will help bring these unfortunate rates down in coming weeks. Given a much smaller population of under 12M (as compared to France and UK with 60M apiece), they should be able to extend the testing to the entire population.

4. Netherlands -- The bi-modal distribution of their daily cases makes it premature to draw any conclusion as to the occurrence of the real peak. Of course, the good news is, Netherlands has the lowest death rates -- 11.6% and 237/million population, respectively -- in Western Europe. Like Belgium, Netherlands has a relatively small population of 18M so it needs to extend the testing to the whole population. Given its current bi-modal situation, it could be more vulnerable to a renewed outbreak.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Comparing Coronavirus Stats – New York City vs. Rest of NYS

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The line graph (top) shows while the New York City curve has just started to flatten, the rest of the NYS curve has been flattening for a while (since 4/11). 

New York City is the home to a large minority population, especially African Americans and Latino Americans. This rapidly increasing divergence between the two curves results from the fact that the city's minority population has been more severely impacted by this outbreak than their counterparts. 

On 3/18 (not shown), the split between NYC and the rest of NYS was 644 to 730 (difference of -86 cases), growing to 1,339 to 1,043 (+296) the next day. The same trend has been continuing ever since; for instance, the difference grew to 10,483 on 3/31 and accelerated to 13,071 and 16,158 on 4/5 and 4/11, respectively. The difference has however tapered in the last three days, indicating the simultaneous flattening of curves.

By studying the two data lines mutually exclusively, one can easily come to the conclusion that the rest of NYS had peaked in early April, while NYC has just started to peak. By early next week, both curves are expected to show clear logarithmic slopes, meaning they will further tilt down.

The regression graph (bottom) shows the rapid acceleration of NYC cases: between 80K and 115K, the data points were pushed above the regression line. Now that the acceleration has significantly tapered, the five most recent data points are residing below the line. 

My blog post on 4/9 showed how the devil was getting frightened. Today, the devil is totally cornered. 

Humans will always win the war with the devil!

Data Source: 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Analysis of the Closed-out Coronavirus Cases – the Global Case

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The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 25K coronavirus cases (as of 8pm on 4/17). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would simply skew the real stats. Also, the UK hasn't reported the updated recoveries, so the analysis of their closed-out stats remains incomplete, too. The worldwide coronavirus cases have now exceeded a mammoth 2.28M.

Highlights of the Closed-out Cases

1. Of the 724,509 closed-out cases worldwide, the split between deaths and recoveries stands at 21:79. Since the world has gradually been coming to grips with more effective treatments, the recovery rate has steadily climbed, which is one positive patch amid this ongoing pandemic.

2. Obviously, the US remains the epicenter of the outbreak with 709K confirmed and 97K closed-out cases (32% and 13% of the worldwide totals, respectively). Unfortunately, the US death rate (38%) has far outpaced the worldwide average (21%). Of course, since the death stats are instantaneously recorded while the recovery is generally a slow process - often a lengthy one - the current US rates reflect that initial imbalance which will be significantly moderated in coming months.

3. Of the three worst-hit countries in Europe - Spain, Italy and France - Spain's rates are trending in line with the worldwide averages while Italy and France demonstrate heart-breaking high death rates, considering they have already gone past the initial imbalance phase.

4. Though the surge in the UK occurred much later than its worst-hit European counterparts, it has lately been catching up. Granted, their recovery stats are not usable, but the actual death rate (total deaths to total cases) of 13% points to the ongoing mayhem there.

5. Despite having to deal with 141K confirmed cases, Germany has been doing a phenomenal job in taking care of their infected population, as evidenced in their very low death rate. Of the 87K closed-out cases, 83K have recovered -- truly awesome job!

6. Belgium has been struggling with ballooning deaths every day. Of the 36% closed-out cases, they have reported a death rate of 39%. Then again, their situation is somewhat analogous to the current US case: the initial imbalance needs to be heeded to.

7. Switzerland, like Germany, has risen to the occasion. A 93% recovery rate is really something to write home about!

8. Lately, Brazil and Canada are being bombarded with new cases, but they seem to be managing their sickened population better than many other countries across the globe. Russia and Netherlands' closed-out stats are incomplete at this point. 

9. Last but not least, Iran. Amid all those economic sanctions they have a low death rate of 8%. I am confused. This is where analysis turns into paralysis.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
            

Coronavirus Stats – the Global Case – 04/16/2020 Update

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Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 25K coronavirus cases (as of 8pm on 4/16). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would simply skew the real stats. The worldwide total has now exceeded a mammoth 2.18M cases. The US has been the epicenter of this pandemic outbreak (since 3/25) with nearly 675K cases (31% of the worldwide total). Italy, Spain and France have peaked as their new daily cases, based on 2-day moving averages, have lately been flat-lining or trending down. Spain remains at the top of the list with 185K, followed by Italy, France and Germany with 169K, 165K and 138K, respectively. Of late, the UK has been climbing the chart quite vigorously with 103K cases and overtaking Iran, one of the original victims.

Deaths -- Though the US death rate of 5.1% has been below the worldwide average of 6.7% (well above the WHO's estimate of 3.4%), some of the hardest-hit European countries have been continuing in the 10-14% range. In fact, Belgium, Italy and UK's death rates have exceeded an alarming 13%. Fortunately, Germany and Switzerland have been maintaining significantly lower death rates. Iran's rate has been holding steady at around 6%, while Canada, Russia and Turkey are doing well. 

Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak around the world, it's too premature to confirm the current worldwide recovery rate of 25.1% as a good base rate that all individual country rates would be compared with. Similarly, despite the explosive outbreak in the US, its recency makes it difficult to confirm the current low rate of 8.5% as its baseline recovery rate. Germany, Spain and Switzerland have been registering better recovery rates than the other European countries. Obviously, Netherlands, Russia and Turkey are struggling. Brazil and Canada are getting better while Iran has been maintaining a high recovery rate. The UK situation is still evolving so its rate is unpredictable at this point.  

Active Cases -- Since the US situation is very fluid, its active cases account for 86%, though down from 92% a week ago. The active percent in Europe remains high, generally in the 60% to 70% range. The countries with more recent surge, including the UK, Netherlands, Turkey and Russia, have active cases in the upper 80's. Canada has been steadily trending down. Since Iran has peaked, its active cases are well under 30%, which is one bright spot amid this mayhem.

Serious/Critical Cases -- Some of the hardest-hit European countries are still faced with 3% to 5% serious/critical cases. Brazil has a mind-boggling high rate of 21.8%. Of course, the lack of uniform guidelines to define this category often makes the comparison somewhat apples-to-oranges. Case in point: Switzerland's 1.4%, UK's 1.5% and Italy's 1.7% rates could be anomalous.  

Tests and Positive Cases -- The US is the only country to have administered over 3M (3.4M as of today) tests, followed by Germany (1.7M), Russia (1.6M) and Italy (1.2M). France and Brazil have high positive rates -- nearly 50% --Germany and Switzerland are showing far lower positive rates. UK, USA, Spain and the Netherlands have been recording very high positive rates as well. The reason Russia and Canada have low rates is that their tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population. Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic population only.  

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

USA is behind in Coronavirus Testing. Time to Outsource Partial Testing to Non-profit Organizations like American Red Cross, etc.

Since the population of the US is significantly larger than the European countries, the equalizing metric in this analysis is: "Tests/1M Pop".  

Based on this metric, of the three hardest-hit countries in Europe -- Italy, Spain and France -- France is the only one that lags behind the US in coronavirus testing. In fact, Italy and Spain have picked up significant momentum in recent weeks. Germany has used a more structured approach to contain this outbreak from the beginning, while Switzerland has been phenomenal in testing its population. Even Canada has done a better job than the US. Unfortunately, the UK, Belgium and Netherlands have been lagging behind their neighbors.

Before opening up the non-essential services sector, the US needs to test its population, to avoid having to encounter a second wave of outbreaks, which could be deadlier. 

Ideally, the US should mobilize the well-established non-profit organizations like American Red Cross, Amnesty International USA, Planned Parenthood, Human Rights Watch, YMCA/YWCA, Food for the Poor, etc. to handle the coronavirus testing, thereby freeing up the hospitals so they can focus on what they do the best -- taking care of the patients. Even the Gates Foundation could be in the mix given their expertise in vaccinations around the world. Considering the current situation, it makes no sense to over-crowd the hospital emergency rooms with those seeking primarily coronavirus testing.  

If UPS and Fedex can handle 10X to 50X packages during the busy holiday season with temporary help, these great non-profit outfits can also handle this on-going testing juggernaut with temps. This outsourcing will not only create thousands of temporary jobs, but will also help train new healthcare graduates on-the-job. 

I disagree with those who are fiercely advocating  outsourcing of coronavirus testing to tech giants like Amazon and Google -- for one simple reason: They are in the business of making money (which is fine!) so they do not understand what caring (firing is not caring!) really means.  

Of course, the testing must be systematic with a meaningful segmentation plan, starting with those with existing jobs (see the post below).

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Also Read
We Need a Meaningful "Test and Return to Work" Segmentation Plan to Avoid a Bigger Rebound Disaster

USA has Bigger Coronavirus Numbers but Smaller Effective Rates

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The above table lists the five countries with a minimum of 100K Coronavirus cases (as of 4/12, 8PM). The US has 560K cases while Spain has roughly 167K, followed by Italy, France and Germany. In terms of the actual number, the difference between the US and Spain is a factor of 3.36, while the difference between the US and Germany is even a larger factor of 4.38. 

Then again, the US population is 7.07 times bigger than Spain's and 3.95 times bigger than Germany's. So, does it make sense to compare the total US cases with Spain's or Germany's? The answer is no because the comparison is apples to oranges. 

We have to compare normalized values (or statistically significant metrics). That is why, the normalized values like "Total Cases / 1M Pop" and "Total Deaths / 1M Pop" provide better comparative yardsticks. Developing a testing mechanism for 331M population is a logistical nightmare. 

Total Cases per 1M Population -- Based on these normalized values, the US has been doing a much better job than Spain, Italy and France. Germany has done an excellent job thus far and is the front-runner. The US's normalized value of 1,692 vastly outperforms Spain's 3,568, Italy's 2,586 and France's 2,031. Again, Germany has been outperforming the US.

Total Deaths per 1M Population -- The normalized US death rate is 67 vis-a-vis Spain's 368 (a factor of 5.5). Likewise, Italy and France have much higher rates as well. Again, Germany has been phenomenal, maintaining a fairly low rate of 36.

The journalists who are tirelessly pointing fingers at our larger numbers fail to understand the apples-to-apples comparisons. 

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

- Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Stats – the Global Case – 04/11/2020 Update

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 15K cases (as of 8pm on 4/11). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would skew the real stats. The worldwide total has now exceeded a mammoth 1.78M cases. The US has been the epicenter of this pandemic outbreak (for a while now) with nearly 533K cases (30% of the worldwide total). Though some parts of Europe have yet to peak, Italy, Spain and France may have peaked as their new daily cases have lately been flat-lining or trending down. Spain remains at the top of the list with 163K, followed by Italy, France and Germany with 152K, 129K and 125K, respectively. Of late, the UK has been climbing the chart quite vigorously, overtaking Iran, one of the original victims.

Deaths -- Though the US death rate of 3.9% has been far below the worldwide average of 6.11% (well above the WHO's estimate of 3.4%), some of the hardest-hit European countries have been continuing in the 10-12% range. In fact, Italy's death rate of 12.8% is just heart-breaking. Fortunately, Germany, Switzerland and Portugal have been maintaining significantly lower death rates. Lately, the death rate of UK has exploded to 12.5%. Iran's rate has been holding steady at around 6%.  

Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak around the world, it's too premature to confirm the current worldwide recovery rate of 22.6%. Similarly, despite the explosive outbreak in the US, its recency makes it difficult to estimate a reasonable recovery rate. Switzerland and Germany have been registering better recovery rates than the other European countries, although Italy, France and Belgium are still struggling with lower rates. Turkey and Brazil have very low rates as well. The UK situation is still evolving so its rate is unpredictable at this point.  

Active Cases -- Since the US situation is very fluid, its active cases account for 90%. The active percent in Europe remains high, generally in the 60% to 70% range. The countries with more recent surge, including the UK, Turkey, Portugal and Brazil, have active cases in the low to mid-90% range. Canada has a high 70% rate as well. Since Iran has more or less peaked, its active cases have trended down to 34%.  

Serious/Critical Cases -- Some of the hardest-hit European countries are still faced with 4% to 6% serious/critical cases. Iran continues to deal with a high rate of 5.5%. Of course, the lack of uniform guidelines to define this category often makes the comparison somewhat apples-to-oranges. Case in point: Brazil's 1.4% and the UK's 2.0%.  

Tests and Positive Cases -- The US is the only country to have administered over 2M (2.7M as of today) tests, followed by Germany with 1.3M and Italy nearly 1M. While the US has a high positive rate of 20%, Germany and Portugal are showing far lower positive rates. France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands have been recording very high positive rates. The reason Canada has a low rate of 5.8% is that its tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population as well. 

Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic population only.  

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

We Need a Meaningful "Test and Return to Work" Segmentation Plan to Avoid a Bigger Rebound Disaster

As we move towards opening up the non-essential sector of the economy, we must embark on a meaningful "Test and Return to Work" segmentation plan, to avoid having to deal with a bigger seismic outbreak on the rebound. 

In order to optimally use the available testing resources we must continue to attach the highest importance to the symptomatic referrals from the medical community so the humanitarian aspect takes precedence over the economic activity. 

By the same token, if we allow people to show up at work without proper testing, the second wave could be more disastrous. Even in the non-essential sector since some industries are more important than others, the plan must be administered at the state level as the individual states are best judges of such priorities.  

Here is the "Test and Return to Work" segmentation plan I would propose:

1. Since the stats show that under-35 is the "least" risk working segment, those who still have jobs must be tested ahead of all others. Those who have been laid off must be left out to start with. We just have to make sure the laid off people are receiving unemployment benefits so they are not out in the cold. Between the stimulus and unemployment benefit, they have to temporarily adjust  while this situation is worked out. Alongside the still-employed, the full-time self-employed who are worse off today must also be included in this segment. Needless to say, those who are negative get to return to work immediately. The positive population starts/continues treatment.

2. The next in line should be the 36-to-50 age category. Again, the same principle of still-employed and self-employed will comprise this category. The testing outcome is the final determinant.

3. All new and recalled employees under the age of 50 will comprise this segment, receiving full priority for test and return to work at this point.

4. Then, the 51-to-67 age category should be considered. The above employment principle applies as well. The reason we need to stop at age 67 during the first iteration is that the 67+ folks qualify for full social security benefits as well as Medicare. By no means, I am suggesting that the 67+ should be forced out of the labor force, but they must be at the back end of the queue so the system remains more risk-tolerant and need-based.

Ideally, between May 1 and September 30, 2020, no one should return to work without having undergone the type of comprehensive testing that would ensure the lasting health and safety of the American people.

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

The New York State Coronavirus Curve is Flattening

The top graph shows the growth in total number of (positive) cases in New York State between 03/23/2020 and 04/08/2020. The slope was clearly exponential until 04/05/2020 (14th day), when the curve started to tilt forward, indicating flattening of the steep growth. The three data points on the outer end of the curve, i.e., 15th, 16th and 17th day, are not only below the trendline, but are also diverging with a widening angle. Obviously, the aforesaid three diverging data points have lowered the r-squared below the perfect level. 

The second graph shows the number of deaths in NYS during the same period. The trendline remains exponential with a slightly steeper slope, moving the r-squared higher than the prior one. Nonetheless, the three outer most data points remain below the exponential trendline, thus closely aligning with the total cases. Of course, since the slope is slightly steeper here, the resulting r-squared is higher than the prior case. Again, the scatter remains almost identical.

The third graph (bottom) shows the regression between the two data sets, keeping the period constant. As expected, the scatter shows a similar exponential slope with an r-squared that remains in close proximity. Considering this divergence has been continuing for three consecutive days -- not just one-off -- it is pointing to an emerging trend.

Now, the devil is frightened. By the time we re-run this study next week with newer data points, the devil will be totally cornered. 

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)

Stay safe.

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com