Analyzing Coronavirus Stats – the Global Case – 04/23/2020 Update

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Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 25K coronavirus cases (as of 8pm on 4/23). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would simply skew the real stats. The worldwide total has now exceeded a mammoth 2.71M cases. The US has still been the epicenter of this pandemic outbreak with nearly 880K cases (32.4% of the worldwide total). Italy, Spain and France have peaked as their new cases, based on 2-day moving averages, have been flat-lining or trending down. Spain remains at the top of the European list with 213K cases, followed by Italy, France and Germany with 190K, 158K and 153K cases, respectively. In last weeks, the UK has experienced cases skyrocketing to 138K cases, vigorously overtaking Turkey and Iran.

Deaths -- Though the US death rate of 5.7% has been below the worldwide average of 7.0% (well above the WHO's estimate of 3.4%), some of the hardest-hit European countries have been continuing in the 10-15% range. In fact, Belgium, Italy, France and UK's death rates have exceeded an alarming 13%. Fortunately, Germany and Switzerland have been maintaining significantly lower death rates. Iran's rate has been holding steady at around 6%, while Canada, Russia and Turkey are doing well. 

Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak around the world, it's too premature to confirm the current worldwide recovery rate of 27.4% as a good base rate that all individual country rates would be compared with. Similarly, despite the explosive outbreak in the US, its recency makes it difficult to confirm the current low rate of 9.7% as its baseline recovery rate. Germany, Spain and Switzerland have been registering better recovery rates than the other European countries. Obviously, Russia and Turkey are struggling. Brazil and Canada are getting better while Iran has been maintaining a high recovery rate. The UK situation is still evolving so its rate is as unpredictable as that of the US.  

Active Cases -- Since the US situation is very fluid, its active cases account for 85%, though down from 92% two weeks ago. Switzerland and Germany have been keeping the active caseloads more manageable than Spain, Italy, France Belgium and Canada where the cases, though trending downward, range between 50% and 60%. The countries with more recent surge, including the UK, Netherlands, Turkey and Russia, have been dealing with high active cases. Since Iran has peaked, its active cases are under 20%, which is one bright spot amid this mayhem.

Serious/Critical Cases -- Some of the hardest-hit European countries are still faced with 3% to 4% serious/critical cases. Brazil has a mind-boggling high rate of 17%. Of course, the lack of uniform guidelines to define this category often makes the comparison somewhat apples-to-oranges. Case in point: Canada's 1.3%, Turkey's 1.8%, UK's 1.1% and Italy's 1.2% rates could be anomalous.  

Tests and Positive Cases -- The US is the only country to have administered all over 4M tests, followed by Russia (2.4M), Germany (2.1M) and Italy (1.6M). France has the highest positive test rate at 34% while Spain, Belgium, Iran and UK are registering in the low-to-mid 20's. Netherlands, the US and Brazil are not too far behind either. As usual, Germany and Switzerland have significantly lower positive test rates. The reason Russia and Canada have low rates is that their tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population. Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic population only.  

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com