Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak in Nordic/Scandinavia

(Click on the image to enlarge)

Highlights...

1. Of all the Nordic countries, Sweden is the only one to forego lockdown and to opt for very limited restrictions. On the other hand, Denmark, Finland and Norway opted for meaningful lockdowns. Sweden is, therefore, paying the price, with infection caseloads two to fourfold higher than its neighbors. 

2. Unlike its Nordic neighbors, Sweden has been experiencing very high real and normalized (per million populations) deaths rates. Its 12% death rate is comparable to the other hard-hit European countries like Spain, Italy, France and the UK. The death rates of the other three countries are significantly below the worldwide average of 6.9%. Norway's 2.7% rate is phenomenal.

3. Since the outbreak in Scandinavia has occurred more recently than the outbreaks in Italy and Spain, it's too premature to talk about its recovery rates. As expected, the recovery rates are all over the map, ranging between 0.4% and 68.5%. Moreover, it's becoming more and more apparent that lack of uniform guidelines is making the recovery rates increasingly unusable. Case in point: Though Norway has the lowest death rate of 2.7%, it also has the lowest recovery rate, at just 0.4% -- go figure!

4. Likewise, active cases are also all over the map, ranging between 27 and 97%. Given the symmetric outbreak in the region, this wide disparity does not make much medical sense. Granted, there could be definitional or interpretational issues pertaining to the recovery rates; however, active cases must not pose such serious reporting disparities.

5. The combination of lack of restrictions upfront and limited testing might lead one to believe that Sweden might have opted for "herd immunity." As a rich Scandinavian country, Sweden's 9K per million testing (vs. Norway's 30K and Denmark's 27K) is simply baffling. Finland needs to intensify its testing as well.

Obviously, Sweden is far behind its Nordic as well as other advanced European counterparts like Austria, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Switzerland -- all of whom have been boasting of at least 25K testing rates.      

Stay safe!

Data Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com