USA has Bigger Coronavirus Numbers but Smaller Effective Rates

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The above table lists the five countries with a minimum of 100K Coronavirus cases (as of 4/12, 8PM). The US has 560K cases while Spain has roughly 167K, followed by Italy, France and Germany. In terms of the actual number, the difference between the US and Spain is a factor of 3.36, while the difference between the US and Germany is even a larger factor of 4.38. 

Then again, the US population is 7.07 times bigger than Spain's and 3.95 times bigger than Germany's. So, does it make sense to compare the total US cases with Spain's or Germany's? The answer is no because the comparison is apples to oranges. 

We have to compare normalized values (or statistically significant metrics). That is why, the normalized values like "Total Cases / 1M Pop" and "Total Deaths / 1M Pop" provide better comparative yardsticks. Developing a testing mechanism for 331M population is a logistical nightmare. 

Total Cases per 1M Population -- Based on these normalized values, the US has been doing a much better job than Spain, Italy and France. Germany has done an excellent job thus far and is the front-runner. The US's normalized value of 1,692 vastly outperforms Spain's 3,568, Italy's 2,586 and France's 2,031. Again, Germany has been outperforming the US.

Total Deaths per 1M Population -- The normalized US death rate is 67 vis-a-vis Spain's 368 (a factor of 5.5). Likewise, Italy and France have much higher rates as well. Again, Germany has been phenomenal, maintaining a fairly low rate of 36.

The journalists who are tirelessly pointing fingers at our larger numbers fail to understand the apples-to-apples comparisons. 

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

- Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com