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Sweden has, more or less, come to rely on herd immunity, other than protecting its most vulnerable citizens including the seniors. It has, therefore, one of the worst coronavirus testing records among the more advanced European nations including the Scandinavian neighbors.
For instance, Sweden has thus far tested only 14,704 per million population, while Denmark, one of the other Scandinavian nations, has been registering well over 50K number of cases. Even Portugal, with a very similar amount of cases as Sweden, has been consistently hitting 50K in recent weeks.
Highlights ...
1. As Sweden increased its testing -- going from just 4,300 in week 10 to nearly 20,000 in week 15 -- the percent of the positive cases skyrocketed, from a mere 5% to 19%.
2. Since the week of 15, the rate of positivity has been steadily declining with the most recent week registering only 13%, while the weighted average for the entire period registering at 15%.
3. The regression graph clearly demonstrates that the relationship is not a linear one anymore. In fact, it is not even a logarithmic; it is now polynomial as evidenced by the extremely high r-squared value.
4. The most recent weekly drop to 13% could be an anomaly, meaning a data patch comprising younger or less vulnerable folks might have been hit, leading to the temporary decline in the weekly rate. As the testing navigates back to the targeted mainstream, the weekly rate may rise back to the norm, pulling up the average as well.
5. The 1 to 2% positivity in the first two rows of data (weeks 4 through 9) may have resulted from the fact that only the healthcare employees were targeted at the outset. Weeks 10 and 11 could be transitional as well, thus yielding the low 5 to 9% positive cases.
Stay safe!
Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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