Coronavirus Outbreak – Is Iran in the Midst of a 2nd Wave?

(Click on the image to enlarge)

Iran was one of the original victims of the pandemic. While Iran peaked towards the end of March (3/25 - 3/31), the earliest victims in Europe (Italy, Spain and France) did not peak until late April. 

At the peak, Iran was hit with 3K +/- cases daily for seven consecutive days. After hitting a peak at 3,186 on 3/30, the daily cases steadily declined to 802 on 5/2. Unfortunately, in May, the trend abruptly reversed direction and started swinging back up quite sharply. The reversal thus far has not been a 'sharp-V' but it resembles at least a 'wide-V' which, nonetheless, poses a significant threat to its vulnerable population.

Even its daily death toll peaked around the same time as its daily infections, but started flattening in early April. For instance, after having peaked at 158 on 4/4, the daily death toll steadily went down to 47 on 5/3, following which it has trended back to 60's and 70's. 

The fact that the daily new cases, of late, have been consistently registering above 2K (e.g., 2,346 on 5/20 and 2,392 on 5/21) is of serious concern. 

The top bar graph makes it abundantly clear that Iran has already been hit with a second wave. It is a renewed trend, not just some outlier 2-3 day spikes. 

The regression graph (bottom) provides a silver lining: The outer end of the curve has forked, indicating that the new death rate is not as vicious as the first breakout. 

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Iran

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com