Coronavirus Pandemic – 50M Cases Globally and 10M in the US

 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Today, the coronavirus pandemic handed in two more grim milestones: The world and the USA registered 50M and 10M cases, respectively, silencing the critics and non-believers of the pandemic or of the horror it has brought to humanity. Unfortunately, the US thus far accounts for 20% of all cases and 19% of all deaths.

The above graphs show how a second wave has been tormenting the world, not only in terms of the explosion of cases but also in rapidly increasing death tolls. During the past summer (June-September 2020), the daily cases used to average around 300K cases. Lately, the average has been doubling -- a tumultuous second wave indeed!

Of course, there is a silver lining amid this grave scenario, which is the low 3% worldwide death rate -- a significantly lower rate than the initial rate that devasted the world during the first wave, thanks to innovative drugmakers like Gilead and Regeneron, coupled with the more accessible ventilators.

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As indicated above, the US just registered 10M confirmed cases, remaining at the top of the hardest-hit list, followed by India with 8.5M and Brazil with 5.5M. Fortunately, the rest of the hardest-hits have not reached the 3M mark yet. 

Though India has three million more cases than Brazil, it has recorded 35K fewer deaths. Despite a fast-declining death rate, Mexico continues to deal with a high ten percentage. Iran's death rate remains conspicuously high as well. 

Due to the inadequate testing, the Latin American hardest-hits have also been confronted with some of the world's highest positivity rates.

Data Source: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

 

Coronavirus Outbreak has Transformed BRIC into BRIM

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Brazil has experienced an eye-popping escalation in the number of cases and deaths in last six weeks. On 5/1, Brazil was number ten on the chart with 92,109 cases and 6,410 deaths. Today (6/6), it occupies the number two position, right behind the USA. Its case total stands at a gigantic 673,587 and death toll at 35,957, reflecting 631% and 461% increases, respectively.

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Though Russia had peaked in early May due to intensified testing and mitigation measures, there has been a slight resurgence lately, raising fear of a back-to-back second wave. On 5/1, Russia was eight on the chart, with a total caseload of 114,431 and a death toll of 1,169. Today, it has moved up to the number three position, behind the USA and Brazil. Its caseload and death toll have reached 458,689 and 5,725, indicating 300% and 390% increases, respectively.

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Considering that India has a population of 1.38B, it has been ahead of many populous countries in containing the spread by imposing extended lockdowns. But, lately, it has been tiptoeing with Brazil in both categories. On 5/1, it was 16th on the chart with 37,257 cases and 1,223 deaths. Today, it is at the sixth position, with 246,622 cases and 6,946 deaths, respectively, revealing heart-breaking 562% and 468% increases. If this growth rate continues, it will soon displace Russia as the number three.

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Though Mexico has a much lower caseload of 110,026, it has been registering a horrific death toll recently. On 5/1, it occupied the 23rd position with 19,224 cases and 1,859 deaths. Today, it has moved up to the fourteenth position, registering a tragic death toll of 13,170, indicating a mind-blowing 608% increase in such a short period. 

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Brazil and Mexico are struggling with very high positivity rates. Russia's 1.2% death rate has been widely questioned, while India's death rate has been steadily climbing. Brazil, India and Mexico have some of the worst testing credentials among the populous countries in the world.

And, what about China? It has invented the mother of all vaccines -- hence no deaths in last two months. Shameless!

So, the coronavirus outbreak has transformed Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) into Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico (BRIM).


Stay safe!

Data and Image Source: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – the May Job Report was a Stunner

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2.5 million in May, reflecting a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to contain it.” 

Economists were stunned by this turnaround in the employment picture as they were expecting that the non-farm payrolls would shed 8M jobs, pushing the May unemployment rate up to 19.5% from April's 13.3%.

So, what happened? How did they miss it so badly?

Here are some issues to ponder...

1. Data Accuracy -- These monthly employment numbers are from surveys, unlike the weekly jobless claims which are from actual filings, so they are almost mutually exclusive data points. We must remember that when a sudden structural change (e.g., the Coronavirus pandemic) happens overnight, surveys become less reliable in the short-run, returning to normalcy as the dust settles. Ideally, this monthly employment report (and the resulting metrics) should be keyed off the actual weekly jobless claims, without having to maintain two competing yet disconnected sets of data simultaneously. Of course, this is by design.

2. Pent-up Demand -- According to the report, most private sectors had job gains (or, at least, fewer losses than in April). Does it just reflect a one-time pent-up demand for manpower to participate in the re-opening, post pandemic? So, unanswered questions such as this make it too early to talk about a turnaround in the overall employment picture; in fact, this report perhaps proves it’s more of a "rush to" quantity than quality. 

3. PPP for Small Businesses --  This rush was further accentuated by the Payroll Protection Program (PPP) of the Treasury Dept., meaning the hiring was not necessarily tied to the business (demand) recovery. It imposed very restrictive requirements: In order to qualify for the loan forgiveness, employees had to be rehired/kept for at least eight weeks and and at least 75% of the loan had to be spent on payrolls within eight weeks of receiving the funds. Many businesses and economists have complained that the PPP was poorly designed. The businesses should have qualified for "forgivable" loans only to keep/hire back their own employees. Anecdotally, many businesses hired their own relatives and friends, claiming the laid-off employees were unavailable / unwilling to return. If these claims are true, the PPP was more than just poorly designed, perhaps a disaster.

Of course, as of today (6/5), the revised guidelines have significantly relaxed most of those stringent requirements. Hopefully, the future job reports will start to show the economic relationship between the business recovery and proper manpower planning.

4. Hiring and Firing -- The biggest job loss in today’s report was in Government (-585K), followed by Information Technology (-38K) –- the two more long-term and better-paying sectors. Conversely, the biggest job gain (+1.2M) was in the “Leisure and Hospitality” sector, which seems to suggest that the industry is ready to conduct a quick experiment to test out two market issues: (a) level of consumer enthusiasm (large and steady flow of customers are needed) and (b) availability of manpower (very labor-intensive industry). Once this quick experiment is over, the June/July reports will show us the results, leading to better understanding of the level of stability in the industry.

5. Volatility in Stock Market (an alternative perspective) -- The stock market is not the leading indicator of the economy anymore (that's now an old economic theory). It has been taken over by the algorithm-driven program trading (Math/AI models), controlled by 20-30 major financial services companies (hedge fund, brokerage, private equity, etc.). These models decide the daily swings of the market. When the models are in tandem, the market generally stays up all day long (as was the case today); when they conflict, some wild swings come into play. Obviously, the central news and events are heavily weighted in those models. Of course, while the other professional day traders play along with the trend, they hardly influence the direction of the market anymore, contrary to the conventional wisdom or belief.

Also, another misconception is that hedge fund managers are perennially on the short side of the market; for instance, if the hedge fund managers were shorting the market in April and May, they would have folded by now. They did when the Dow went down to 18K in March and then they reversed direction and went "long." Once we retest the old highs, they may short the market again. People must realize that the hedge fund managers use very sophisticated math models (case in point: Dr. Jim Simons was a math professor before starting Renaissance, one of the largest and most successful hedge funds).

Anyway, this job report was wonderful and we'll embrace it with open arms.

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – Why Turkey has Tapered but Iran hasn't

Though Iran and Turkey have very similar population sizes with 84M apiece, Iran occupies twice as much land space, making it the second largest country in Middle East, just behind its neighbor Saudi Arabia across the Persian Gulf. Iran shares the northern border with Turkey.

Highlights...

The Outbreak in Iran

Iran was one of the original victims of this pandemic outbreak, alongside China and South Korea. The graph makes it clear that the onslaught of the outbreak was in late February, peaking in late March. It had a textbook taper after having made a single modal peak with a daily caseload of 3,186 on 3/30. 

Unfortunately, as soon as the outbreak was nearing the end, it encountered a second wave, with a bigger resurgence than the original one. 

Thus far, the second wave has not only eclipsed the first peak, but has also surged past 3,500 cases on 6/4. Iran is one of the very few countries that has faced a second wave immediately following the first wave.

The Outbreak in Turkey

While the outbreak in Turkey did not occur until late March, it did take off quite rapidly, peaking in mid-April with an average daily caseload of 4,500. Like Iran, Turkey also demonstrated a single modal peak and a rapid subsequent taper, but no signs of any resurgence yet.

Given the steady and uneventful taper, Turkey, like some of its neighbors in Eastern Europe has started opening up the economy in phases.

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While both countries had had similar caseloads, death, recovery and active case rates, two challenging issues threw Iran back into the fray amid a more vicious second wave: (a) extremely poor testing and (b) high positivity rate. 

While Turkey's per capita testing record is nothing to write home about at a low 26K, Iran's credentials are absolutely miserable at 12K. Comparatively, the US has been logging at 59K which is still well below where it needs to be. 

Iran's high positivity rate at 16% vis-a-vis Turkey's 7.6% has been a public health catastrophe, considering its poor medical infrastructure due to the long-standing economic sanctions from the western world.

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Iran
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Turkey


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
           

Coronavirus Outbreak – Most Eastern European Countries have yet to Peak or Taper

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Since there is no hard and fast definition or composition of Eastern Europe, all countries to the east of Germany and Austria have been considered as the Eastern European countries in this blog post. Also, considering Russia, the hardest-hit in Eastern Europe with 432K cases and 5.2K deaths thus far, has been featured in a recent blog post, it has been skipped.

After Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Armenia, Czechia and Moldova have also been hit hard. Also, while the countries like Hungary, Greece, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Croatia are faced with 2K to 4K cases, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Albania are fighting 1K to 2K cases.

Highlights...

1. Though Belarus has already been facing 45K cases, it has the lowest death rate at 0.5% among the Eastern European nations. Its aggressive testing strategy and fairly low positivity rate have helped keep the recovery rate high and active rate manageable. Belarus has yet to peak. 

2. Ukraine, with 25K cases, has not only peaked but has been trending down as well. Like Belarus, its low death and positivity rates have contributed to better recovery and active rates. But, unlike Belarus, it has a dismal per capita testing record of 8,721 (as compared to Belarus' 61K).

3. Due to a relatively small recent migrant population, Poland has a very low positivity rate at 2.6%, despite having registered a fairly mediocre testing record. It has peaked but not tapered. 

4. Romania's above average death rate at 7% has been offset by low positivity, high recovery and low active rates. Like Poland, it has a mediocre testing record, but it has peaked and shown a rapid subsequent tapering trend.

5. Among the rest, Hungary has the highest death rate at 15%; Armenia and Moldova have high positivity rates at 17% and 15%, respectively; Greece has the lowest positivity rate at 1.6%, followed by Hungary and Czechia; and Croatia has the highest recovery rate at 93%, followed by Bosnia and Czechia. Most of these countries have peaked but not tapered.

Last but not least, Lithuania has the best per capita testing record at 116K, far outdistancing Russia and Belarus at 78K and 61K, respectively.

All of the Eastern European countries have poor-to-mediocre testing credentials so they need to study the testing strategy of Lithuania and try to replicate it in the immediate future to avoid having to deal with a second wave.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com 

Coronavirus Outbreak – It's a Somber Day in New York; Death Toll Reaches 30K

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It's another day of mourning for New Yorkers. Today (6/2), they are staring at another horrific milestone in the making: The death toll from the Coronavirus outbreak reaches 30K. While New York was the epicenter of this outbreak for almost six weeks, spanning between 3/20 and 5/10, its residual but waning effect (e.g., on average 100 daily deaths) is still being felt.

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Highlights...

1. Thus far, out of the nationwide death toll of 108K, New York has the lion's share at 30K (28%), followed by New Jersey at 11.8K (11%) and Massachusetts at 7K (6.6%). New York's death rate at 8% is well above the national rate at 5.7%, but below those of Michigan (9.6%) and Connecticut (9.2%).

2. One of the reasons the tri-states of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have been terribly impacted is the high positivity rate. While New Jersey has the highest positivity rate at 20%, New York and Connecticut have also logged high rates at 18% and 16%, respectively. Obviously, New York also has the highest per capita death rate in the nation at 1,546, nearly five times the national average.   

3. As the outbreak started taking over New York, the public health authorities managed to significantly intensify the testing efforts, thus getting to the symptomatic population faster to save lives. New York now boasts the highest testing credentials at 2.2M, with an impressive per capita rate at 111K. Despite the rapid taper in May, New York still continues to struggle with a high active rate at 75%.

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4. Though the world continued to hear that the epicenter was the state of New York, the facts are quite different. The actual epicenter was the downstate part of New York comprising New York City (5 counties), Long Island (2 counties) and Westchester. Kings (Brooklyn) and Queens Counties thus far have registered the highest death tolls at 6,754 and 6,274, respectively, followed by Bronx and Manhattan at 4,482 and 2,929, respectively. New York City has also recorded the highest death rates in the state.

5. Another malady that has severely impacted downstate New York is the high positivity rate. Depending on the county, the rate varied between 21% and 24%; only Manhattan has managed to record a lower rate at 16%. These high rates, collectively, have pulled the statewide average up as well.

Again, it's a somber day in New York. The people around the world need to offer a silent prayer so these departed souls can rest in peace. They didn't deserve to die.  

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are Still Surging

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Highlights...


1. India's total caseload is nearing 200K. In May alone, the total cases jumped from 35,365 to 190,535 -- a whopping 440% increase. It is already number seven globally and, at this rate of growth, it will soon be competing with Russia for the number three spot. In May, it has eclipsed past all of the hard-hit European countries -- Italy, UK, Spain, France and Germany -- while its death toll has jumped from 1,152 to 5,394

2. The Pakistani chart looks almost as miserable as that of India. Between 5/1 and 5/31, the number of cases shot up from 18,114 to 72,460 -- an incredible 300% escalation. The death toll rose from 417 to 1,543. Unfortunately, its cases as well as death rates have been accelerating since late May. 

3. The Bangladeshi chart is very similar to the charts of its two Sub-continental neighbors, indicating a rapid acceleration in May when the total caseload grew from 8,238 to 49,534 -- a heartbreaking 500% jump. The death toll jumped from 170 to 672. Of course, these are hospitalized cases only so the real counts could be significantly higher.

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4. India has been fortunate to register a much lower positivity rate at 5.2% vis-a-vis Pakistan's 12.9% and Bangladesh's 15.4%. India also has brought its active case rate down to 49%, while Pakistan and Bangladesh are still struggling with higher rates at 62% and 77%, respectively. 

5. The per capita testing records of all these three countries are terribly poor, posing serious concerns as they all are in the process of relaxing lockdown restrictions. Bangladesh's per capita testing record of 1,951 just beggars description.

Stay safe! 

Data Sources: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_India

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – Saudi Arabia and UAE have Peaked; Kuwait and Qatar haven't

Highlights...

1. Though Kuwait has a very low death rate, it has a high positivity of 9%. Unfortunately, a rich country like Kuwait still does not have good testing credentials, considering it has a large migrant population living in congested housing. Recently, it showed a false negative for three days, following which the curve moved right back up, re-testing the prior daily highs.

2. Qatar, another rich country in the region, is nowhere close to where it should be right now. Unfortunately, after each retracement, the country faced newer and bigger surges, overtaking the prior daily highs. It has one of the highest per capita cases at 19,783 versus Kuwait's 6,341 which itself is quite high. The most tragic issue Qatar has been facing is the extremely high positivity rate of 26%, meaning every fourth person being tested turns out positive. This country also has a large migrant population so the need to extend the tests to that population is clear and present. 

3. Though Saudi Arabia has one of the lowest per capita cases at 2,452, it also has the most abysmal per capita testing record at 23,666, as compared to that of UAE at 213,608. Additionally, it has a high positivity rate of 10%. On the positive side, it has been tapering fast. Saudi Arabia's economy runs off the expatriates and migrant laborers, so it is critical that it increases testing at a rapid pace before a second wave takes over the country.   

4. The UAE is the only country in the region with 2M+ test credentials, translating to a per capita rate at 213,608, which is also one of the highest in the world. It also has the lowest positivity rate of 2%. Since it peaked in mid-May, it has been steadily declining. It needs to extend its testing to its large migrant population, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, to avoid having to fear a second wave in cooler months ahead.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – Brazil's Meteoric Rise will become a Case Study in Epidemiology

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Considering the meteoric rise in cases and related death tolls in the last 30 days, the coronavirus outbreak in Brazil will arguably become a case study in epidemiology. Today (5/30), Brazil experienced a massive 30,102 cases, far surpassing the USA's 23,290 cases.

Highlights...

1. The outbreak in Brazil was quite delayed relative to Europe and USA. On 3/15, Brazil had only 200 cases and no deaths, while the US already had 160,686 cases and 2,985 deaths. In Europe, Italy had 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths, while the cases in Spain and France were on the rise. 

2. On 5/22, Brazil's total cases of 330,890 eclipsed its European counterparts, including the front-running Russia with 326,448. Italy, Spain and the UK were left far behind. Of course, the death toll of Brazil was still behind those of Italy and the UK. 

3. On 5/30, the combination of Brazil's cases and deaths skyrocketed to 498K and 28K, respectively. In last 30 days alone (4/30 to 5/30), the caseload jumped a whopping 484%, while Russia experienced a sizable escalation of 272%. Italy, Spain and the UK continued to flat-line.

4. Though Brazil has a poor testing record thus far with 930K, as compared to Russia's 10.3M, it has an astronomically high positivity rate of 54%. The rates of the four European counterparts have ranged between 4 to 8%, while the US has a higher rate of 10.5%.

5. Of course, amid all this doom and gloom, there is a clear silver lining for Brazil. While Spain, Italy and the UK are faced with high death rates of 10 to 14%, Brazil has been registering a much lower death rate at 6%. Russia's reported death rate of 1% must be taken with a grain of salt.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
   

How the Coronavirus Outbreak has Impacted the Stock Market

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The coronavirus outbreak jolted the stock markets around the world to an extent not seen since the Great Depression. 

The resulting volatility, both in terms of price changes and spikes in trading volume was historic. The resulting change in price and volume was more or less inverse, meaning as the prices tumbled, trading volumes skyrocketed, as evidenced by the above two graphs.

Highlights...

1. The weekly price graph shows that the Dow Jones average peaked during the week of 2/5, hitting a weekly  high of 29,276, although the daily intraday high of 29,569 occurred only on 2/12. This deviation between the daily and weekly occurs due to the averaging of the weekly prices. During this time period, the outbreak was still an epidemic, confined primarily in one central province in China.

2. The week of 3/18 saw the fastest collapse in Dow Jones history, as well as in other broader market averages. The weekly average swooned to 20,705, though the intraday low of 18,214 occurred on 2/23, on the heels of the talks of a wide range of restrictions from the CDC and White House.      

3. After having hit the low, the market quickly turned around. Initially, it was a V-shaped recovery, with the market shooting up nearly 5,000 points in a mere three weeks. During the week of 4/8, the Dow Jones average made a meteoric rise to 23,950 (with an intraday high of 24,009 on 4/9). This recovery was on the back of a historic stimulus package to help consumers and businesses tide over an anticipated lockdown to arrest the spread of the outbreak.

4. Though the recovery of the stock market has continued through the last trading week in May, the slope of the Dow Jones average has flattened to a U-shape from the prior V-shape. Since then the average has regained another 1,800 points, settling at 25,400 on 5/28, with the intraday high reaching 25,759. This rise occurred following the taper of the outbreak in New York City, which was the epicenter of the US outbreak for over six weeks, destroying nearly 3,000 lives thus far.

5. The bottom graph shows the Dow Jones' weekly trading volumes. During the week of 3/18, when the average made a 4-year low, the volume spiked to 4.1B, which was three times higher than the normal weekly average. The two graphs show the perfect inverse relationship between the week average value and the trading volume. Then, as the average started to recover, the volume waned, falling back to the normal 1B level again.

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://finance.yahoo.com/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid som

homequant@gmail.com

    

Coronavirus Outbreak – 41M Unemployed in 10 Weeks

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The above data table shows how the coronavirus outbreak has impacted the job market. The weekly jobless claims data are a better indicator of the job market than the monthly unemployment data as the former shows the actual jobless claims data rather than the survey data. 

Highlights...

The lockdown resulting from the pandemic has forced employers to lay off a historic 40.8 million full-time employees in a mere ten weeks, between 3/21 and 5/23.   

During the same 10-week period, the number of coronavirus infections skyrocketed from 23,710 to 1,612,018 -- a whopping 6700% escalation. The rise in death toll was more horrific, going from a mere 301 to 90,821; the percentile increase simply beggars description. 

Lately, the death rate (the ratio of number of deaths to number of infections) has stabilized at around 5.6%.

Though nearly 41 million jobs have been lost in such a short period of time, the recent trend shows a steady decline. After having peaked at 6.867M on 3/28, the most recent weekly jobless figure stands at 2.123M. 

At this declining rate, the next weekly figure is expected to be well under the 2M threshold, hopefully leading to 0.5M by the end of June.

The regression graph depicts a linear declining trend. Now that the states have withdrawn or relaxed the lockdown restrictions and businesses are re-opening at a steady pace, the employment picture will gradually improve. 

Of course, since the re-opening of businesses will largely depend on the immediate availability of manpower, we have to wait and see if the withdrawal of restrictions was medically conforming or was politically hastened.      

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 
US Department of Labor 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – A Somber Day in US History

May 27, 2020 will be recorded in the US history as one of the most tragic and heartrending dates. On this day, the death toll, due to the coronavirus pandemic, crossed the somber 100K milestone. 

According to the above graphics, the outbreak thus far has triggered 1.745M cases and claimed 102,065 innocent lives. Of course, out of the 589,903 (34%) closed cases, 487,838 (83%) have recovered, which definitely is the silver lining amid this global tragedy.

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The above table shows that the US's highest death toll is followed by the UK at 37.5K, Italy at 33K, France at 28.6K, Spain at 27.1K and Brazil at 25.6K. Germany, Iran, Canada, India, Turkey, Peru and Russia are also hard hit, having lost 4K to 8K people to this pandemic. 
   
Though the worldwide death rate has been 6.2%, France, Italy and the UK have suffered very high casualty rates at 15.6%, 14.3% and 14.0%, respectively. Spain and Canada have experienced above average death rates, too.

While USA, Russia, Peru, India and Brazil have been struggling with high active case rates, Germany, Iran, Turkey, Spain, Italy and Canada have maintained their recovery rates above the much-needed 50% threshold.  

Lately, Brazil has been experiencing an astronomical positivity rate at 47%, meaning almost every other case has been turning out to be positive. Iran, Peru, France and USA are also seeing double digit positivity.

Though India still has one of the lowest per capita caseloads, death tolls and positivity rates, its risk level has been rapidly rising; for instance, on 4/27, it had 29,451 cases and 939 deaths. Today, it has recorded 158,086 cases and 4,534 deaths -- a fivefold increase in both categories, in a mere 30 days.   

In order to pay homage to these first 100K martyrs, the US government should consider annexing a new memorial at the Arlington Cemetery, with their names inscribed in letters of gold. They didn't deserve to die!  

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – Some Awkward Death Stats are Raising Data Suspicions

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Using the Incoming data

The fact that the coronavirus outbreak in the US is already 3-months old provides for enough data liquidity at the state and national level, at least for the hard-hit states in the nation, allowing some advanced national and global public health policy analyses, mitigation modeling and AI and robotic solutions. 

Additionally, due to the easy access to the data (almost all states are uploading the daily data for general consumption), even healthcare analysts at the local governments are able to readily analyze and compare the city-and-county-level stats with the competing geo-demographic clusters to zero in on the deviations and the underlying reasons, leading to a set of emerging local and regional public heath care solutions. 


Comparing the Hard-hit States

The above data table shows the hard-hit 16 states, with at least 30K total cases. New York was the epicenter of the US outbreak in March and April, with 22% of the total cases and nearly 30% of total deaths, followed by New Jersey with 9 and 11%, respectively. Both of these states have faced very high positivity rates. Illinois, California and Massachusetts are next in line with at least 90K cases. All of these states are still struggling with high active caseloads. 

Given the severity of the outbreak, New York had to significantly intensify the symptomatic testing, especially the greater NYC area. It has, therefore, the best per capita testing credentials, followed by Massachusetts, Louisiana, New Jersey, Connecticut and Illinois. New York and New Jersey have the highest per capita death tolls as well.


Possible Data Inconsistency

While New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Connecticut have 7 to 9% death rates, Texas, California, Georgia, Florida, etc. have unusually low death rates, despite having large minority and immigrant populations that are proven to be the ones most at risk of Covid-19.

These polarized events resulting from the death rate mismatch are raising serious suspicions among the vast majority of public healthcare professionals regarding the accuracy, if not the authenticity, of the data being released. Given this rising suspicion about the data, going forward it will be difficult for them to accept such data without an independent audit. Already, Georgia has accepted a serious failure in data construct, while Florida has been under pressure for removing its original GIS analyst who was the architect of the application interfacing externally.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com