Coronavirus Outbreak – Most Eastern European Countries have yet to Peak or Taper

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Since there is no hard and fast definition or composition of Eastern Europe, all countries to the east of Germany and Austria have been considered as the Eastern European countries in this blog post. Also, considering Russia, the hardest-hit in Eastern Europe with 432K cases and 5.2K deaths thus far, has been featured in a recent blog post, it has been skipped.

After Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Armenia, Czechia and Moldova have also been hit hard. Also, while the countries like Hungary, Greece, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Croatia are faced with 2K to 4K cases, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Albania are fighting 1K to 2K cases.

Highlights...

1. Though Belarus has already been facing 45K cases, it has the lowest death rate at 0.5% among the Eastern European nations. Its aggressive testing strategy and fairly low positivity rate have helped keep the recovery rate high and active rate manageable. Belarus has yet to peak. 

2. Ukraine, with 25K cases, has not only peaked but has been trending down as well. Like Belarus, its low death and positivity rates have contributed to better recovery and active rates. But, unlike Belarus, it has a dismal per capita testing record of 8,721 (as compared to Belarus' 61K).

3. Due to a relatively small recent migrant population, Poland has a very low positivity rate at 2.6%, despite having registered a fairly mediocre testing record. It has peaked but not tapered. 

4. Romania's above average death rate at 7% has been offset by low positivity, high recovery and low active rates. Like Poland, it has a mediocre testing record, but it has peaked and shown a rapid subsequent tapering trend.

5. Among the rest, Hungary has the highest death rate at 15%; Armenia and Moldova have high positivity rates at 17% and 15%, respectively; Greece has the lowest positivity rate at 1.6%, followed by Hungary and Czechia; and Croatia has the highest recovery rate at 93%, followed by Bosnia and Czechia. Most of these countries have peaked but not tapered.

Last but not least, Lithuania has the best per capita testing record at 116K, far outdistancing Russia and Belarus at 78K and 61K, respectively.

All of the Eastern European countries have poor-to-mediocre testing credentials so they need to study the testing strategy of Lithuania and try to replicate it in the immediate future to avoid having to deal with a second wave.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com