Coronavirus Outbreak – Alabama Faces a Powerful Surge

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The surge that started in late May has still been plaguing Alabama relentlessly, without any signs of abatement on the horizon. On the other hand, the current surge in Alabama is nowhere as ominous as in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas.

Highlights...

1. Between 4/1 and 6/27, the total cases surged from 1,121 to 35,083 -- a whopping 3,030% jump. In June alone, 17,063 new cases have been added, far exceeding the 10,165 new cases added in May when the surge was somewhat under control. 

2. As expected, the average daily cases also more than tripled between April and June, from 202 to 651, with all of the multi-modal points vastly eclipsing the linear trend-line. The slope of the 7-day moving average also confirms the rapid surge.

3. Likewise, between 4/1 and 6/27, the death toll jumped from a mere 17 to 919, escalating a heart-breaking 5,300%. There is the silver lining though: The rate of growth in caseloads has been exceeding the growth in death tolls, as evidenced by the logarithmic slope, rather than the linear slope, in the regression graph. The high r-squared value even confirms that the death rate has been tapering off.

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4. Alabama's death rate of 2.6% is significantly lower than the current national average of 4.9%. Compared to its neighboring hotbeds, its low death rate has been sandwiched between Mississippi and Missouri on one hand and Arkansas and Tennessee on the other. Its active case rate is also currently lower than the national rate.   

5. Unfortunately, Alabama not only owns the highest positivity rate among the five hotbeds in the region, but it also has a higher rate than the national average. Moreover, its testing credentials are also sub-par compared to some of its neighbors, as well as the national average. 

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Alabama

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus – How does the New Lineup Look after NY and NJ?

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The lineup after New York and New Jersey is currently spearheaded by Massachusetts with 55K cases and followed by Illinois (44K), California (43K) and Pennsylvania (43K). Lately, Michigan has seen an explosion in new infections, and at this current pace, it is expected to overtake at least California later next week considering that the latter has tapered. Florida has also been gaining momentum.

Michigan is faced with an alarming death rate of 8.8%, way above the national average of 5.6%. Though Connecticut has the second highest direct death rate, it has the highest normalized rate (deaths per 1M population). Despite a large immigrant population, California has managed to keep its coronavirus fatalities low due to its aggressive restrictions. Also, the fact that California has a low normalized death rate further confirms the effectiveness of the restrictions in place. Though Louisiana and Massachusetts have high death rates (along with high normalized infection rates), the effects of their intensified testing will alleviate the immediate danger.  

Though Texas has the lowest death rate, it lags behind in testing, which is troublesome. Ohio also lags behind in testing, thus facing a more serious situation than that of Texas as it already has a much higher death rate. Given its demography, Florida needs to maintain its current restrictions at least thru 5/31, as well as significantly increase testing, otherwise its death rate could promptly spike above the national average. Illinois, California and Pennsylvania should follow Louisiana and Massachusetts' recent testing models.

The fact that the active caseloads remain very high (at 80-90%), with a high national average of 82%, points to two immediate needs: significant bump in testing and gradual loosening of restrictions in keeping with the CDC's new guidelines.

Stay safe!

Data Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com