Coronavirus Outbreak has Transformed BRIC into BRIM

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Brazil has experienced an eye-popping escalation in the number of cases and deaths in last six weeks. On 5/1, Brazil was number ten on the chart with 92,109 cases and 6,410 deaths. Today (6/6), it occupies the number two position, right behind the USA. Its case total stands at a gigantic 673,587 and death toll at 35,957, reflecting 631% and 461% increases, respectively.

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Though Russia had peaked in early May due to intensified testing and mitigation measures, there has been a slight resurgence lately, raising fear of a back-to-back second wave. On 5/1, Russia was eight on the chart, with a total caseload of 114,431 and a death toll of 1,169. Today, it has moved up to the number three position, behind the USA and Brazil. Its caseload and death toll have reached 458,689 and 5,725, indicating 300% and 390% increases, respectively.

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Considering that India has a population of 1.38B, it has been ahead of many populous countries in containing the spread by imposing extended lockdowns. But, lately, it has been tiptoeing with Brazil in both categories. On 5/1, it was 16th on the chart with 37,257 cases and 1,223 deaths. Today, it is at the sixth position, with 246,622 cases and 6,946 deaths, respectively, revealing heart-breaking 562% and 468% increases. If this growth rate continues, it will soon displace Russia as the number three.

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Though Mexico has a much lower caseload of 110,026, it has been registering a horrific death toll recently. On 5/1, it occupied the 23rd position with 19,224 cases and 1,859 deaths. Today, it has moved up to the fourteenth position, registering a tragic death toll of 13,170, indicating a mind-blowing 608% increase in such a short period. 

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Brazil and Mexico are struggling with very high positivity rates. Russia's 1.2% death rate has been widely questioned, while India's death rate has been steadily climbing. Brazil, India and Mexico have some of the worst testing credentials among the populous countries in the world.

And, what about China? It has invented the mother of all vaccines -- hence no deaths in last two months. Shameless!

So, the coronavirus outbreak has transformed Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) into Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico (BRIM).


Stay safe!

Data and Image Source: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak in Latin America

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Highlights:

1. Brazil -- Though Brazil has the largest number of cases in Latin America, its effective rate (No of Cases/1M pop) is significantly lower than those of several other countries in the region. Moreover, Brazil has peaked as its daily new cases have been steadily trending down since hitting the highest point on April 15. Its high death rate can be attributed to its inadequate testing. 

2. Peru -- Despite having 16K cases, Peru has a fairly high effective rate. Nonetheless, it has managed to keep its death rate low by putting in place an efficient testing system. Of course, the good news is that Peru has also peaked as its daily new cases have been on the wane since hitting the peak on April 13.

3. Chile -- Though Chile already has over 10K cases with a high effective rate, it nonetheless has the lowest death rate in the region due to its highly aggressive testing mechanism. Chile -- peaked or very close to peaking -- announced yesterday its soon-to-be-introduced "Covid Digital" project to certify its "negative" population. 

4. Ecuador -- With over 10K cases and a high effective rate, Ecuador has one of the worst overall stats in the region. Their primary failure thus far has resulted from inadequate testing; for instance, Ecuador's 32,453 tests look quite pale vis-a-vis Chile's 118,827, albeit having comparable population sizes.  

5. Mexico -- Though Mexico has fewer than 10K cases, it is nowhere close to the peak. Conversely, Mexico's cases are growing exponentially -- from 353 new cases on 4/14 to 578 on 4/18 to 764 on 4/20. Their highest death rate coupled with the lowest testing rate point to an unsettling situation in the immediate future. 

6. Panama -- Despite Panama's small population of 4M, the combination of a late and erratic surge demonstrates a high effective rate of 1,035. Fortunately, their intensified testing has been keeping the death rate low. Obviously, the recency of the surge translates to the low recovery rate and high active caseloads. 

7. Colombia and Argentina-- Late surges, inadequate testing, high death rates, and low recovery rates currently describe the outbreaks of these two countries. They need to intensify testing to avoid having to be confronted with much bigger situations.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com