Coronavirus Pandemic – Testing Credentials of the VA System are Appalling

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1. The Veterans Affairs department (VA) has been caring for nearly 40K veterans. Though its death rate of 5.4% and a positivity rate of 8.3% are well in line with the hardest-hit states, it nonetheless owns miserable testing credentials relative to those states. The normalized testing rate of 24K vis-a-vis the national average of 184K is just appalling.

2. Of course, once the testing level is improved, the positivity rate and the resulting confirmed cases are expected to climb. Unfortunately, the veterans living in small towns and rural areas do not have easy access to the VA hospitals and clinics, so the reported cases (as indicated above) do not represent the 20.4M active population. According to some experts, it could be manifold higher.

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3. Despite the inadequate care, the VA system has already registered more cases than in 20 US states and all territories. It has the second-highest death rate and fourth highest positivity rate on the list. Lately, its caseloads and deaths are on the rise alongside the rising cases in the Sunbelt. Again, the VA shows the worst testing credentials on this list.  

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4. The above graph from the VA site shows the rapid surge in July, which has continued into August. Though the VA reports a very limited active caseload of 14%, its convalescent cases account for over 80%, so the active case picture, unlike in different states, is somewhat misleading. 

5. Ideally, the VA system should be merged with Medicare so all veterans would qualify for Medicare. As indicated before, the veterans living in small towns and rural areas are at a significant disadvantage in having proper access to medical care as they generally prefer to stick to the VA system to avoid out-of-pocket expenditures. If the VA system becomes part of Medicare, our veterans would be better off. 

"Medicare for All Veterans" will be a good start, eventually leading to "Medicare for All."

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.accesstocare.va.gov/Healthcare/COVID19NationalSummary

-Sid Som 

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – 5 Countries from 5 Continents Occupy the Top 5 Places (Truly Global)

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The above table shows the five countries - from the five different continents - are topping the current list of the total number of cases thus far (as of 7/24). The US continues to be the front-runner with 4.25M cases, followed by Brazil (2.35M), India (1.34M), Russia (800K), and South Africa (422K). The fact that the top five countries represent five different continents makes this pandemic a truly global one. 

The correlation matrix shows that while the USA has high collinearity with India and South Africa and moderately high correlation with Brazil, it has a high negative correlation with Russia. In fact, Russia has negative correlations with all four countries. The reason is simple: While the daily cases of Brazil, India, South Africa, and the US are rapidly rising, Russia has been trending down. This inverse relation has generated negative correlation coefficients.

Brazil -- Brazil's pandemic nightmare has been an open secret. It has 2.35M cases, with a death toll of 85K. The daily average caseload was 14,118 in May, doubling to 29,572 in June, and further elevating to 38,497 in July. At 48%, it has one of the highest positivity rates in the world. Being located in the Southern Hemisphere it has also run into the winter flu season, resulting in a double whammy. 

India -- Of these five countries, India's chart is the most awful. Though the slope is not an exponential one yet, it has already broken past the linear trend, making it look all the more appalling. The rapid change in the slope can be explained by the change in the daily average caseload from May to July: The daily average caseload in May was a mere 4,893, skyrocketing sixfold to 29,208 in July. The monthly death toll also jumped fourfold between May and July, from 134 in May to 564 in July.

    

Russia -- After having peaked in early May, Russia's daily cases have been steadily declining. The daily average caseload in May was 9,714, declining to 6,400 in July. The death toll has moved up slightly from 117 in May to 155 in June/July. Of course, Russia has done a great job in testing, thus achieving one of the best credentials in the world. 

     

South Africa -- Though South Africa's trendline resembles that of India's, it nonetheless lacks the expanse of its counterpart's. The daily case average of 891 in May grew thirteen-fold to 11,167 in July. The death toll also grew eightfold during that period, although South Africa has one of the lowest death rates in the world. Unfortunately, its positivity rate has been climbing, causing serious concerns in some of its densely-populated cities like Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, etc.

The USA -- Though the initial outbreak in the US had tapered by mid-June, a powerful resurgence in the Sunbelt -- particularly Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas -- has renewed its place at the top of the chart. In fact, as of today, California has eclipsed New York in total cases, the original epicenter of the outbreak in the country. Florida and Texas now occupy third and fourth places. The daily death toll has also been climbing, forcing many states to return to the partial closure of businesses and restoration of mitigation measures like face-coverings, curfews, etc.   

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com 

Link to the Book

Coronavirus Outbreak – It's a Somber Day around the World as it Reaches Two More Unfortunate Milestones

Today (6/28) is a very somber day for the world. The coronavirus pandemic has hofficially hit two new milestones, causing 10M infections and claiming 500K lives, worldwide. 

Out of the 6M closed cases, 500K (8%) have died, while the remaining 5.56M (92%) have recovered. Fortunately, of the 4M active cases, only 1% are in serious-to-critical condition, while the remaining 99% are suffering from mild condition.

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Of the hardest-hit countries in the world (see above table), the USA tops the list with 2.63M cases (26%), followed by Brazil, Russia and India with 1.3M (13%), 634K (6%) and 549K (5%), respectively. The UK occupies the distant fifth position with 311K (3%). 

After the virus had allegedly originated and infected one province in China, it quickly spread to some European countries, followed by the US and Asia. Though the virus hit South America quite late, Brazil, Peru, and Chile are already in the top ten countries. Similarly, India and Mexico are the two more recent large-scale victims. 

In line with the number of cases, the USA also own 25.5% of all deaths thus far, followed by Brazil, the UK and Italy. France, Italy and the UK have recorded the highest death rates, ranging between 14% to 18%. Spain used to be alongside its European counterparts, but there has been some confusion about its reporting in June so the rate has fallen below 10%. Mexico has also been facing high death rate at 12%. Despite 634K cases, Russia's low 1.4% death rate has been met with significant skepticism. 

Brazil, Mexico and Chile have been registering very high positivity rates, followed by Peru, Pakistan and Iran. Brazil's 46% positivity rate is simply menacing. While the UK, Russia and Spain have meaningfully increased per capita testing, registering above 100K each, some of the developing countries like Brazil, India and Mexico have lagged far behind.

These 500K people didn't deserve to die. Sadly!

Stay safe! 

Data Sources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – NASDAQ Ignores Pandemic and Makes New All-time High Reaching 10K Marks

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The tech-heavy NASDAQ, along with the other broader market indices, has been on a tear since bottoming out on 3/23. Though all three major indices -- Dow, NASDAQ ("index") and S&P 500 -- have moved in tandem, the index managed to reach the finish line first. Today (6/9), the index not only made an all-time high, but also reached a new milestone of hitting the 10,000 mark. 

It is almost astonishing that the index would marshal such firepower amid a once-in-a-century pandemic. This is truly something to write home about.

Highlights...

1. Before the onslaught of the pandemic, the index made a new high of 9,838 on 2/19. However, on 2/25, the CDC alerted the American public for the first time to prepare for an outbreak in the US, causing massive panic among the general public and businesses. Consequently, the index remained in a free-fall for the next three weeks.  

2. On 3/23, all three indices hit the bottom. After hitting an intra-day low at 6,631, the index quickly reversed trend and started shooting up, quickly hitting an intra-day high at 6,985 and closing well above the low at 6,861. As the top chart shows, since that day, the index continued a sharp V-shaped recovery until today, reaching that marvelous feat. Though Dow and S&P 500 closed down today, the index closed in the positive territory with a 29-point gain.

3. Of course, between 3/23 and 6/9, there were days when the index closed down, but there was only one occasion when it closed down two days in a row (5/12 and 5/13). All other down days were followed by up days, meaning the index closed in the green. In fact, the index closed up with at least 200-point gains on eight occasions and on two occasions it returned 190+ points. On the other hand, it closed down with 200-point losses on only four days.

4. As the index started closing in on the 10K milestone, the excitement skyrocketed, as evidenced by the spike in volume (the volume chart). In the last four days, the daily volume jumped to 6B, from the prior average of 3.52B. Of course, during the period of panic, the index did register 5B volumes on three occasions. This demonstrates how fear and excitement tend to impact both price and volume in the market.

5. Amid all this excitement, there is some built-in sadness. During this period, millions lost jobs so they were unable to participate via the 401(K) which -- for the 99% -- is one of the most common ways to participate in the market. Also, in order to cope with the fallout from the pandemic, many businesses, especially the hardest-hit dining and retail sectors, have either totally eliminated or reduced 401(K) employer matching, somewhat denting the incentive for those otherwise unaffected by the mass lay-offs.

Anyway, it was a historic day for the index while we look forward to similar milestones for Dow and S&P 500 in the days to come.  

Stay safe!

-Sid Som 
homequant@gmail.com