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| Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Click on the image to enlarge |
The above table identifies the countries with a minimum of 10K confirmed cases. China and South Korea have been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would skew the real stats. South Korea, on the other hand, is out of the woods, with only 47 new cases. All said and done, the world should seriously study the South Korean mitigation model (they have done a marvelous job!).
The silver lining in the US stats (as of 9pm ET):
1. The US has performed 1.9M tests, identifying (and confirming) 365K cases -- in line with the (weighted) average of this subset. The US rate, thus far, is significantly lower than the other advanced European countries like Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The UK situation is still emerging, while Iran's system is not comparable. Canada's rate has been surprisingly low (includes the asymptomatic population?).
2. In terms of the death rate, the US rate is significantly lower than the comparable average. The death rates of Italy, Spain, France, the UK and the Netherlands are at least three times higher. Even Belgium, Brazil and Switzerland are projecting higher rates.
3. It's too premature to talk about the US recovery rate. Therefore, the US rate cannot be compared with the hardest-hit European countries (minus the UK and Portugal) due to the timing of the outbreak. The Netherlands' surprisingly low recovery rate could be an outlier, perhaps stemming from an asymmetric definition.
4. The critical population rate of the US is significantly lower than Europe's, especially Spain, France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. Iran is still confronted with a large critically ill population. Fortunately, Italy's recovery rate has been trending up, while it's critically ill population is steadily declining.
Stay safe!
Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
- Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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