The renewed surge in the Sunbelt is baffling the scientists as they had expected a rapid taper in the summer months. Instead, the cases are rapidly surging all across the Sunbelt, from Georgia in the East to Arizona in the West. Texas has remained in the front and center of this surge.
Highlights...
1. Texas, like the rest of the Sunbelt, peaked in mid-May and rapidly tapered in the following ten days. Scientists were happy to see the conventional wisdom -- surge in viral outbreak and rising heat are inversely related -- coming to fruition.
2. Unfortunately, as the graph demonstrates, the rapid taper in late May hardly lasted. A fast resurgence followed immediately thereafter, easily eclipsing the prior highs in just a matter of days. For example, between 4/1 and 5/25 the daily cases averaged at 958 while from 5/26 to 6/12 the average surged 60% to 1,539 defying the fast rise in daily temperature. The 7-day moving average confirms the surge as well.
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3. Here is the good news: As the regression graph shows, the death rate has been tapering while the surge in on-going. Though the death rate exceeded the surge earlier, it has been subsiding in recent days. At this rate, the curve will flatten quickly. Of course, since the death rate lags any renewed surge, the real impact could be somewhat down the road so Texans should follow all mitigation guidelines until the surge tapers.
4. Unfortunately, like the other Sunbelt states, Texas has also fallen behind in testing. While most of the Northeast states have already achieved per capita testing of at least 100K, Texas has been registering only at 46K. It has to significantly up the ante to have a better handle on the surge.
Stay safe!
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