Coronavirus Pandemic – Death Toll in the Sunbelt keeps Surging

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1. The combined picture above shows how a massive surge in death toll has taken over the Sunbelt since the beginning of July, with the average daily toll moving up by almost 100 deaths every week. While the daily average death toll in June was 171, it jumped to 440 in July and rocketed to 618 in August, proving the horrific nature of the surge. The 7-day moving average confirms the surge. One must understand these are actual deaths and not just confirmed cases.

2. The Florida and Texas graphs demonstrate the almost uniform contributions of the states to the overall picture. While the daily average of Florida in June was 35, it escalated to 108 in July and 159 in August. The Texas case has been even worse. The daily average in June was a mere 25, increasing to 132 in July and 227 in August. In other words, the surge between June and August has already exceeded a whopping 800%.

3. The above regression of daily death counts between California and Florida shows a positive linear relationship. When a handful of outliers are removed from the scatter, the r-squared value improves significantly, proving that inter-state movements have been in lockstep. 

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4. Fortunately, the death rates have remained in line with the national average. Unfortunately, Arizona and Florida's positivity rates have remained very high, while Georgia and Texas are catching up. Alongside, Louisiana, Alabama, South Carolina, and Nevada are also surging. Alabama and South Carolina have been registering double-digit positivity rates as well. 

Given these high death tolls -- not just confirmed cases or hospitalizations -- state governors must keep mitigation measures, including mandatory use of masks in all public places until the current situation drastically improves.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Arizona (and others)

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – July was an Awful Month for the USA

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1. The US has been experiencing an extraordinary surge due to the considerable escalation in the Sunbelt. While daily cases averaged 27,990 in June, the average more than doubled in July to a whopping 61,148. The 5-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged a 636 in June, rapidly climbing to 808 in July. On ten different occasions in July, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 1,000 instances. Had the reporting been more consistent in the weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. The trendline, however, demonstrates the sharp rise in July.

3. The slope in the regression graph is not only exponential, but the angle is also tilting up. Although the growth rate started declining in mid-June, the trend suddenly reversed in July, thus bumping up the slope from the prior linear to the exponential. This reversal, primarily brought about by the Sunbelt, has caused significant concerns at the CDC and local public health professionals.

4. Though the US death rate has steadily declined, falling below the worldwide average, its positivity rate has been inching up. Of course, this spike could very well result from the increased testing, which has lately been logging in at 180K (per million people). The US's testing credentials are second only to Russia's.

5. At the beginning of June, New York and New Jersey spearheaded the total cases, while Texas and Florida occupied the seventh and eighth positions. Now, California, Florida, and Texas top the list. Unfortunately, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, the four hard-hit Sunbelt states have been registering very high positivity rates, causing serious concerns for the local hospitals.

Data Sources: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – South Carolina is the latest State to join the Surge in the Sunbelt

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1. South Carolina is the latest state to join the extraordinary surge in the Sunbelt. While the daily cases averaged 818 in June, the average more than doubled to 1,697 in July. The 5-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

2. The daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged a mere 8 in June, exponentiating to 31 in July. On eight different occasions, the daily deaths exceeded 50 instances. Had the reporting been more consistent, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. The trendline, however, demonstrates the sharp rise in July.

3. The regression graph is perhaps more telling. The slope is not only exponential, but the angle is also getting steeper every day. Initially, the growth rate in daily cases either moved in tandem or exceeded the increase in death tolls. Still, lately it has sharply reversed, causing significant paranoia among local public health professionals.   

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4. The above table shows how South Carolina compares with the other Sunbelt states currently under siege by the surge. Despite the rising death toll in July, South Carolina's death rate of 1.9% remains comparable to its Sunbelt counterparts and is well under the national average. Even its normalized population death rate (per million) remains contained. 

5. Finally, the rising positivity rate, which is well above the national average, has become a severe concern to its hospital system. Any further escalation in hospitalizations will push the system to a tipping point.

Data Sources: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Carolina

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – A Powerful Resurgence is Tormenting Florida

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The resurgence of the outbreak in Florida that started in mid-June has grown into a full-blown explosion by early July, forcing re-closing of bars, restaurants, and other retail establishments. Some counties in southern Florida are facing curfews, meaning gatherings of ten or more are prohibited. 

The assumption that the rising heat would help contain the spread of the virus in Florida has turned out to be false, as the mid-day temperatures are consistently hitting the low-to-mid 90's every day.  

Highlights...

1. In May, the daily cases averaged at 725, surging exponentially to 3,209 in June and tripling to 10,398 in July. The highest number of cases were recorded on 7/12 at 15,300 while the daily cases exceeded 10K in nine out of the last ten days.

2. The 5-day moving average trendline in July thus far looks genuinely worrisome. The recent highs far exceed the prior peaks in May and June, raising serious concerns for the public health professionals, considering that most beaches, theme parks and indoor entertainment centers are already open. Shockingly, amid these skyrocketing daily cases, Disney World opened on 7/11, while it remained closed in May-June when the cases were flat-lining. 

3. Unfortunately, the daily death tolls have not subsided either. Though the hospitals are much better equipped today to handle serious and critical cases than they were at the onset of the outbreak, it was, therefore, widely expected that the death toll would come down fast. But the stats are not confirming that expectation. The daily toll averaged at 35 in June, while it more than doubled to 79 in July. In the last seven days the average jumped to an eye-popping 114.

4. The 5-day moving average trendline of daily death tolls in July is dreadfully upsloping, confirming that the death tolls are rapidly rising, rather than going sideways as was the case during May-June. Of course, the only silver lining in this resurgence is that the growth angle of the daily cases is more expansive than the growth angle of the daily deaths.  

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5. Though Florida has one of the lowest death rates in the country, its positivity rate has been climbing, causing serious concern for the hospital system. Also, given its population demographic, the rising positivity rate is a double whammy. At 88%, it has the highest active rate in the Sunbelt, closely followed by Arizona, and remains significantly above the national average of 50%. Fortunately, its testing credentials have been getting better. 

Politics aside, Florida needs to get its act together before the resurgence turns into a deadly second wave. 
Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Florida


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Link to the Book

Coronavirus Outbreak – the Sunbelt Faces a Powerful 2nd Surge

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A powerful second surge has been sweeping through the Sunbelt since mid-May. Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia and Texas have been registering record-breaking daily cases, pushing the daily US totals above 50K. Today (7/2), the total cases in the US hit the highest ever at 57K, buoyed by Florida's first-ever 10K, followed by California's 9.3K and Texas' 7.5K.

Highlights...

1. In the last five days alone, the total number of cases nationally jumped 10%. While the total escalation, since the beginning of the surge on 6/15, has been 30%, Florida has registered a whopping 120% surge, along with a rising death toll of 25%. Los Angeles County in California has also been registering significant surges in both categories. 

2. While the US daily average jumped from 23,000 in May to 27,000 in June, it has jumped to 35,500 since 6/15 alone. The graph depicting the daily cases makes an emphatic case. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the rapid surge as well.

3. Of course, the regression graph of total deaths to total cases is somewhat comforting. While the death rate exceeded the case rate at the middle of the curve (meaning between 1.6M and 2.2M cases), it has tapered significantly during the recent surge. The optimal fit is, therefore, logarithmic, rather than exponential or even linear. The high r-squared value backs up the fit.

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4. Though the US accounts for 26% of the world's cases and 25% of all deaths so far, the overall death rate, despite the surge, has been steadily declining. Of course, due to the on-going surge, the active case rate has been on the rise again. While the per capita testing credentials have inched up, the pace has been less than stellar; for instance, Russia and the UK have been doing a much better job than the US. The positivity rate has been holding steady at around 8%.

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5. Fortunately, the surge in the Sunbelt has not spiked the death rates. In fact, the death rates in Northeast have still been significantly higher than those of the surging states; Georgia's death rate of 3.2% has been the highest among these states.

Unfortunately, the surge has elevated the active case rate, which is quite concerning. If the criticality of the cases starts to rise, it will start putting significant pressure on hospitals, especially ICUs, as was the case at the height of the outbreak in New York and New Jersey. 

The silver lining has been the increased testing and the moderate positivity rates thus far. Texas, however, needs to intensify testing to isolate the moderate cases from the serious ones to avoid having to end up in the same situation that New York was in at its peak.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
  

Coronavirus Outbreak – Texas Faces Renewed Surge

The renewed surge in the Sunbelt is baffling the scientists as they had expected a rapid taper in the summer months. Instead, the cases are rapidly surging all across the Sunbelt, from Georgia in the East to Arizona in the West. Texas has remained in the front and center of this surge.

Highlights...

1. Texas, like the rest of the Sunbelt, peaked in mid-May and rapidly tapered in the following ten days. Scientists were happy to see the conventional wisdom -- surge in viral outbreak and rising heat are inversely related -- coming to fruition. 

2. Unfortunately, as the graph demonstrates, the rapid taper in late May hardly lasted. A fast resurgence followed immediately thereafter, easily eclipsing the prior highs in just a matter of days. For example, between 4/1 and 5/25 the daily cases averaged at 958 while from 5/26 to 6/12 the average surged 60% to 1,539 defying the fast rise in daily temperature. The 7-day moving average confirms the surge as well.

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3. Here is the good news: As the regression graph shows, the death rate has been tapering while the surge in on-going. Though the death rate exceeded the surge earlier, it has been subsiding in recent days. At this rate, the curve will flatten quickly. Of course, since the death rate lags any renewed surge, the real impact could be somewhat down the road so Texans should follow all mitigation guidelines until the surge tapers.

4. Unfortunately, like the other Sunbelt states, Texas has also fallen behind in testing. While most of the Northeast states have already achieved per capita testing of at least 100K, Texas has been registering only at 46K. It has to significantly up the ante to have a better handle on the surge.   

Stay safe!

Data Source:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-

19_pandemic_in_Texas

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com