Coronavirus Outbreak – It’s Time to Overlay the Moving Average

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Now that the coronavirus outbreak has been in full swing for over six weeks, it's a good practice to study the daily data points alongside a simple trendline representing the 3-day moving average. This smoothes out the daily reporting anomalies, especially the the weekends and holidays. As the liquidity increases, the 3-day average can be extended to a 5-day and 7-day averages. 

This is very similar to daily closing vs. weekly closing prices for stocks and indices. When an extended series is available, the weekly closings provide a smoothed out trend. 

Likewise, if the current outbreak continues to plague us for an extended period of time, researchers would be looking at weekly trends rather than the daily trends. When a particular short stretch has to be looked at more closely, say between 5/1 and 5/15, obviously the daily data points remain more critical.

The advantage of a moving average trendline is that it, unlike the linear regression line, does not suppress the seasonal peaks and troughs. For instance, the moving average trendline of an extended two year outbreak, as in the case of the SARS outbreak, will still show the bi-modal allergy seasons (e.g., Apr-May and Oct-Nov), thus allowing researchers the opportunity to address or flatten those seasonal peaks.    

The above graphic shows that while NYS peaked around 4/10, there were follow-up spikes on 4/15 and 4/25. The 3-day moving average trendline, however, has moderated them down with two lower low peaks. Overlaying the moving average trendline is useful for presentations as well. 

When a forecasting model is needed out of an extended time series, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is very handy. Hopefully, we will not reach that point as far as this outbreak is concerned.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
       

Analyzing Coronavirus Stats of Hardest-hit Countries – 03/28/2020 Update

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Total Cases -- The worldwide total has exceeded 662K (as of this writing at 8pm ET). The top table shows the ten hardest-hit countries -- in terms of total number of cases -- in the world thus far. Sadly, the US sits at the top of the table with 122K cases (or 18.5% of the worldwide total), followed by Italy (92K), China (81K), Spain (73K), Germany (57.7K) and France (37.6K). While China's incremental cases have flatlined lately, the total for the US, Italy, Spain and Germany have been moving up exponentially since early March. Unfortunately, Netherlands has displaced South Korea to occupy the 10th place. 

Deaths -- Italy's death toll has reached an alarming 10K, while Spain's has been hovering at 6K. Though less than 7% of the worldwide toll, the US toll has skyrocketed to 2K in a very short spell. About a month ago, WHO announced a revised death rate of 3.40%, which is expected to be further revised up shortly to reflect the reality on the ground. The current rate is 4.64% and has been on the upswing daily by several basis points.

Recovery -- Considering it's a global pandemic with an asymmetric outbreak, it's too early to talk about a stable worldwide average recovery rate, even continental averages. While the current worldwide recovery average is 21.39%, China's 92% rate is just awe-inspiring. On the other hand, Italy, Spain, Germany and France, the four hardest-hit European countries, have been registering very low recovery rates in mid-teens. It's too premature to talk about the US recovery rate. 

Active Cases -- Out of the 489K active cases globally, China's total has fallen to a mere 3,128 (or just under 4% of their total cases), some of which might have been recent imports (at least, that's what China continues to claim). Conversely, all of the above European countries are confronted with very high active rates of at least 75%. 

Given the mounting new cases every day, high death and low recovery rates, Italy and Spain need immediate military help from other countries, especially from militarily-strong countries like India, Russia and China. Meanwhile, it's however heart-warming to see that Russia has already sent a team of doctors and medical supplies to Italy. 

The US case will be analyzed tomorrow.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Understanding the Coronavirus Stats – 03/22/2020 Update

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Highlights...

1. The epicenter has moved from China to outside of China, especially Europe and USA. Iran continues to be a major concern. South Korea, like China, has tapered.

2. Sadly, the major 10 countries, including China, now account for 85% of all cases and 94% of all deaths.

3. While China's recovery rate remains very high, it has been gaining momentum for South Korea and Iran, the other two major victims that immediately followed China.    

4. Unfortunately, in terms of total cases, the US has moved up to the third position, accounting for nearly 10% of all cases.

5. With the skyrocketing new cases ever yday, Italy's death toll has also climbed to 5,476 or 9.26% overall. While Russia is sending a team of doctors and supplies to Italy, the less-affected countries like India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc. need to follow suit before the situation in Italy goes totally out of control.

6. The published data shows Italy currently has an alarming 3,000 serious/critical cases, followed by Spain (1,785) and France (1,746).

7. While China has tapered, it still has 5,353 active cases, including 1,845 serious/critical cases. Already devastated by the virus, China now fears a circular curve.  

8. The four European countries -- Italy, Spain, Germany and France -- now account for nearly 129,000 cases (an alarming 38%).

9. The most troubling stat has been the death rate in closed out cases (recovered + deaths). In the last two weeks, that rate has more than doubled, from 6% to 13%.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

How to read the Coronavirus Stats between the lines – Updated 03-21-2020

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

Paula, a Research Analyst with a Master's in Public Health, is attending the final interview for a Senior Health Care Analyst position. Here is the simulation of the interview:

The company EVP was there to welcome her, "Paula, congratulations on reaching the final phase of the hiring process. We started off with 25 best and brightest. You are now one of the final four. What an achievement! Whether you are the final one or not, you will always be respected here as a champion, a true champion indeed. I stopped by to welcome you back. Now, the interviewers will take over from here. Good Luck."

Question # 1
Interviewer: This interview concentrates on the on-going Coronavirus pandemic that has been terrorizing the world, including the US. A few days ago, the WHO. announced an overall death rate of 3.40%. Unfortunately, as of this afternoon, the death rate has climbed to 4.27%. How did they go wrong with their initial assessment?

Paula: WHO does not front-run the curve. Since the initial rate was computed strictly off of the early stage data, that was nothing but an initial assessment. We cannot hang our hats on that rate. Unfortunately, that rate will continue to climb. In fact, during the SARS outbreak, WHO's initial rate was proven to be much lower than the actual. As a public health professional, I read such numbers as initial stats, not as leading indicators. They will continue to revise their stats as they get to crunch the new data points.        

Question # 2
Interviewer: When only the closed-out cases are evaluated, the death rate now jumps to 12%, from the last week's 6%. Which one would you use and why?

Paula: Well, they serve two different purposes. The overall rate is for the public at large as it is easy to understand and report. The rate based on the closed-out cases is for the public health professionals. In fact, it is the real rate as it makes true apples-to-apples comparison. It does not make much scientific sense to compare deaths with the total cases as the latter comprise new cases as well. 

Question # 3
Interviewer: Do you expect this high death rate to continue for some time or it's just one-time explosion?

Paula: It's going to continue. I suspect the rate will go a few points higher before it starts to taper off. China's low rate of 4% is still keeping the average down. At this point, China still accounts for roughly 27% of the total cases. Once it goes down to under 20%, the death rate will spike again. 

Question # 4
Interviewer: Even a few days ago, the recovery rate was above 40%. Now it has fallen to 31%. What do you think is contributing to this sharp and significant decline in the recovery rate?

Paula: The obvious reason is the sharp rise in death rate. If you look at the graph showing the daily breakdown, you will notice the death rate curve was more or less linear until March 4, following which the slope has become completely exponential. Around that time, the epicenter moved from China to outside of China, and the epidemic burst into a global pandemic. Until March 4, China's high recovery rate was contributing to the overall high recovery rate. Going forward, as China's stats become less of a controlling factor, the recovery rate will continue to decline.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Question # 5

Interviewer: Though South Korea has 8,800 cases, they have the lowest death rate of 1.16%. Given that, shouldn't we expect to see a high recovery rate such as China's? 

Paula: We have inadequate data here so I won't be able to give a professional opinion on it. I need to see the active cases broken down into at least two categories: non-critical and critical cases. Yes, their recovery rate has been markedly lower than China's.   

Question # 6

Interviewer: Analyze the numbers related to Italy.

Paula: With a death rate twice the worldwide average and a low recovery rate, they are perhaps the worst victim of this on-going carnage. In fact, while studying the numbers for Italy yesterday I found that their death rate in closed-out cases has been a whopping 44%. They are in dire straits. 

Question # 7
Interviewer: What do you suggest we do to help Italy out of this tragic situation?

Paula: Italy is running out of time and options so they need military help from the global powers, especially militarily-strong countries like China, India, Russia and the US. Given China's current situation, their role could be advisory but they have the right expertise now. We need to call our Representatives in Washington DC and make this case to them. We need to act fast to avoid a much larger human tragedy, potentially a human catastrophe. 

Question # 8
Interviewer: The US picture is also deteriorating by the day. What suggestions would you offer to our President?

Paula: I will offer both long-term and short-term solutions to the President. The long-term solutions: In order to avoid future situations like this, I would ask him to introduce "Universal Basic Income" for all adults, cancel issuance of the new H1-B visas for 3-5 years starting 4-2020, and start phasing out the income tax and replace it with middle-class friendly progressive consumption taxes. In terms of short-term solutions, I would suggest at least four measures: (a) Free $1,000 monthly checks to all adults for six months, (b) Postpone the April 15 income tax filing deadline for six months, not three months (c) Student loan repayment holiday for six months without any interest and penalty, and (d) Any uninsured person requiring hospitalization due to the Coronavirus must be allowed total medical payment waiver. 

Question # 9
Interviewer: Though NYS has close to 11,700 confirmed cases, its cases are growing by leaps and bounds. What advice would you give to the Governor?

Paula: Governor Cuomo needs to shut down the NYC Subway system immediately. I take the NYC Subway everyday so I know how it could add to the woes. Additionally, the Governor should postpone the NYS income tax deadline by six months, waive all sales taxes for a while and double the NYS child care credit. Again, I like to come back to emphasize the situation in Italy. NYS' situation is nowhere as dire as Italy's. Italy is sitting on a ticking time bomb. The global community must pay immediate attention to Italy, or else we will rewrite the horrors of Pompeii all over again, with a much larger human catastrophe.

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM    
President, Homequant
homequant@gmail.com

Also read:
The Initial Interview
Universal Basic Income     
Phasing out Income Tax