Analyzing Coronavirus Stats – the European Case – 04/29/2020 Update

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Highlights...


1. Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit European countries, those with at least 20K cases. Italy, Spain, France, UK and Germany have peaked as their new cases, based on 2-day moving averages, have been trending down. Spain remains at the top of the European list with 237K cases, followed by Italy, France, UK and Germany with 204K, 166K, 165K and 161K cases, respectively. Since Russia's surge has been more recent, in the last 10 days its cases have more than doubled. Belgium and the Netherlands have also experienced significant jumps in caseloads.

2. Deaths -- Though some of these European countries have been continuing in the 10-15% range, the UK and Belgium have hit an alarming 16% death rate. Fortunately, Germany, Switzerland, Portugal and Ireland have significantly lower death rates in 4 to 6% ranges, well below the worldwide average of 7%. Obviously, it's too premature to talk about Russia's death rate due to its more recent surge.

3. Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak across Europe, the country-wise recovery rates are all over the map, with Germany and Switzerland in the mid-'70s while Sweden and Portugal are struggling with extremely low rates. Lately, Ireland and Spain started showing some improvements, but Belgium, France and Italy are still stuck in 20's and 30's. Again, the Russian situation is still evolving so its recovery rate remains unpredictable at this point.  

4. Active Cases -- Switzerland and Germany have been keeping the active caseloads more manageable than the rest. Ireland and Spain are showing improvements as well. It's good to see that the active rates of Belgium, Italy and France have already fallen below the worldwide average of 62%. As expected, the countries with more recent surge, especially Portugal and Russia, have been dealing with very high active rates. 

5. Tests and Positive Cases -- Russia is the only European country to have administered well over 3M tests, followed by Germany (2.5M), Italy (1.9M) and Spain (1.4M). France has the highest positive test rate at 36% while Belgium and UK are registering in the low 20's. Sweden, Netherlands and Spain are showing up in upper teens as well. As usual, Germany, Portugal, Switzerland, Italy and Ireland are showing green shoots, with significantly lower positives. The reason Russia has a very low rate is that its tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population. In terms of the normalized rates (per million populations), Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland are well ahead of the rest with 30K testing rates. Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic populations only.  

Stay safe!

Data Source: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 



-Sid Som
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