Coronavirus Outbreak – How the UK Eclipsed Italy in Death Toll

(Click on the image to enlarge)

On 5/5, the UK made international headlines for all the wrong reasons: It surpassed then front-runner Italy in total number of coronavirus-related deaths.  

As the above graph depicts, just 15 days ago on 4/23, the UK death count (21,787) was comparable to France (21,856) and Spain (22,157) but was far behind Italy (25,549). In fact, the percent growth provides a better perspective: While the mortality rates of France, Italy and Spain grew between 17 and 19% during this period, it was a horrific 41% increase for the UK.

Between 4/24 and 5/4, the UK count skyrocketed, widening the spread with France and Spain while narrowing the spread with Italy. The rate of growth was alarmingly high between 4/27 and 5/2 but has since tapered, despite having eclipsed Italy on 5/5 in a perfectly linear fashion.

Fortunately, France, Italy and Spain have been lowering their overall death rates (deaths to total infections) as well, gradually bridging the gap with the other European countries.

The recent volatility of the UK toll has been amply captured in its high standard deviation and coefficient of variation (COV) -- almost twice than that of its counterparts.

Unfortunately, the UK is far behind in testing as compared to France, Italy and Spain. It's time they intensify testing at least within the symptomatic population as the early detection will significantly reduce hospitalizations and fatalities.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom  


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com