Coronavirus Outbreak – Is the Age Distribution Meaningful?

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There has been a lot of talk about the age distribution of the coronavirus cases and deaths in the hardest-hit countries in Europe. Since Spain provides a large enough sample to represent those countries, especially France, Germany, Italy and the UK, it has been used here to make the empirical case.

1. The combined age groups of 0 to 9 and 10 to 19 account for less than 1% of the total cases while the fatality rate is almost null at 0.04%, indicating that the youngest folks have more or less "herd immunity" against the coronavirus. Thus, the asymptomatic populations in these two age groups -- without any underlying medical conditions -- do not require any immediate testing whatsoever. 

2. While the infection rates between the ages of 20 to 39 progressively move up, the cumulative fatality rate again is negligible at 0.46%. Though these two age groups do not have herd immunity, the asymptomatic candidates are nonetheless "non-priority" in terms of the first round of testing.  

3. Though the infection rate in the next age group of 40 to 49 is quite high at nearly 15%, the fatality rate is remarkably low at a mere 1.07%. Hence, the asymptomatic folks in this age group should be considered "low priority" in testing. 

4. While the overall infection rate is even higher for those between the ages of 50 and 59, the fatality rate there is still quite low at 3.29%. Therefore, the asymptomatic population here should receive "low to moderate" priority in testing.

5. Though the mortality rate in the 60 to 69 age group is much higher, it is nonetheless significantly lower than those in the 70+ groups. As such, the asymptomatic folks  in this age group should have "moderate" priority in testing.

6. Given the high mortality rates in the 70+ age groups, these folks are at the highest risk. Thus, the asymptomatic folks must receive "high" priority in testing, right after  -- or alongside -- all of the symptomatic folks. 

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Spain


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com