Coronavirus Pandemic – Brazil Reaches another Unfortunate Milestone – 100K Death Toll

Today, Brazil hits another unfortunate milestone: the 100K death toll. It's a somber day for Brazil, indeed.

Brazil has been the epicenter of the outbreak in South America since May, occupying the number two position behind the US but far surpassing the hardest-hit European countries and India. 

The outbreak in Brazil was quite delayed relative to the outbreak in Europe and the USA. On 3/15, Brazil had only 200 cases and no deaths, while the US already had 160,686 cases and 2,985 deaths. In Europe, Italy had 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths, while the cases in Spain and France were on the rise. 

Highlights...

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1. Brazil has been experiencing an extraordinary surge since May. While daily cases averaged 29,573 in June, the average jumped to 41,316 in July/August -- a whopping 40% escalation. The 5-day moving average trendline confirms the massive rise. The 'W' formation poses a more severe threat in the short-run.

2. However, the daily death toll has been flat-lining, which is a silver lining in all this doom and gloom. The daily death toll averaged 1,009 in June, moving sideways to 1,050 in July/August. On eighteen different occasions in July/August, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 1,200 instances. The trendline also demonstrates the sideways movement in July/August. 

3. The slope in the above aggregate regression graph is almost perfectly linear, posing the same relentless threat more threat to the vulnerable population as in June and July, considering Brazil -- like the rest of hard-hit South America -- has a very high positivity rate. 

4. The above daily regression graph's slope remains linear, confirming that the mortality rate -- unlike in the US and Europe -- has been uncontrolled. The daily regression scatter produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value, without the handful of outliers resulting from inconsistent reporting on weekends. 

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5. The above table shows how Brazil stacks up against its hardest-hit South American neighbors. Though it has a reason death rate, its normalized population mortality rate has been very high, behind only Peru and Chile. In general, South America has some of the highest positivity rates in the world, and Brazil has not bucked the trend either.  

By being in Southern Hemisphere, Brazil is in the middle of the winter season, meaning it is also in the midst of the conventional allergy and flu season, thus accentuating the havoc. 

Unfortunately, many local experts believe the reported numbers do not reflect the reality on the ground. According to Alexandre Naime Barbosa, a medical professor at the São Paulo State University, "The true number (of cases) could even be as high as 10 million people." 

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Link to Sid's Books

Coronavirus Pandemic – The Relentless Surge Rattles Mexico

Today, Mexico hit a grim milestone – 50K deaths.

Highlights...

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1. While the surge in Mexico has been relentless since early- June, it has reached almost a horrific level in July/August. Though the daily cases averaged 2,305 in May, the average jumped to 4,514 in June and a whopping 6,395 in July. The linear slope of the 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged 260 in May, more than doubled to 595 in June, and drove further higher to 615 since then. Since June, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 800 instances on twelve different occasions. Had the reporting been more consistent on weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. The trendline, however, demonstrates the sharp rise in June and July.

3. Though the slope in the above aggregate regression graph is almost perfectly linear, the recent death trend has been slightly up-sloping, posing more threat to the vulnerable population, considering Mexico has one of the worst testing records in Latin America.

4. The slope in the above daily regression graph remains linear, except at the curve's outer end, confirming the threat mentioned above in the short-run. The daily regression scatter produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value, without the handful of outliers resulting from inconsistent reporting on weekends.

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5. The above table shows how Mexico stacks up against its hardest-hit Latin American neighbors. By now, it's an open secret that Mexico has been registering the highest death rate in Latin America and also has one of the highest death rates globally. Though Latin America, in general, has some of the highest positivity rates in the world, Mexico, Bolivia, and Honduras, in particular, have astronomically high rates in the '40s. 

Additionally, Mexico has the worst testing credentials among these countries.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Mexico

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – The State of Ohio has been Rapidly Resurging

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1. Though the state of Ohio peaked and tapered in mid-June, the trend quickly reversed in late-June, starting an extraordinary resurgence by eclipsing the original highs set in April and May. While the daily cases averaged 543 in June, the average more than doubled in July to a whopping 1,270. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive resurgence.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The regression graph makes it amply clear that the death toll has started spiking after flattening in the middle of the curve (May/June). Had the reporting been more consistent on weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. However, the trendline demonstrates the reversal at the outer end of the curve (July/August).

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3. The death rate in Ohio has not only stabilized but has also fallen below some of its surrounding neighbors, particularly Pennsylvania and Michigan. Moreover, its testing credentials are worse than most of its neighbors. Though its positivity rate is still below the national average, it will start inching up with increased testing.

To flatten the resurging curve, Ohio needs to re-introduce more stringent mitigation measures, including a more careful multi-phase re-opening of schools, religious institutions, theme parks, and indoor amusement centers.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ohio

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
  

Coronavirus Pandemic – Romania has been Surging alongside other Central European Countries

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1. Despite having escaped a major outbreak alongside the original hard-hit European countries, Romania has been experiencing an unexpected surge since mid-July. While daily cases averaged 257 in June, the average more than doubled in July to 771 and has continued into August. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the steadily-rising surge.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged 13 in June, rapidly climbing to 22 in July. On ten different occasions in July, the daily deaths exceeded 25 instances. The trendline also demonstrates the sharp rise in July.

3. Though the slope in the aggregate regression graph (top) is linear, the slope in the daily graph (bottom) has already transformed exponentially, which poses a significant threat in the short-run. The regression of daily cases without the handful of outliers produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value. 

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4. The above table shows how Romania stacks up against its neighbors. Though its death rate has been steadily rising, its positivity rate has remained stable. However, even after six months into the pandemic in Europe, it's hard to believe it has been registering only 67K testing credentials. As it increases its testing, the cases and positivity are expected to escalate.  

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Romania

-Sid Som
homequant@Qgmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Testing Credentials of the VA System are Appalling

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1. The Veterans Affairs department (VA) has been caring for nearly 40K veterans. Though its death rate of 5.4% and a positivity rate of 8.3% are well in line with the hardest-hit states, it nonetheless owns miserable testing credentials relative to those states. The normalized testing rate of 24K vis-a-vis the national average of 184K is just appalling.

2. Of course, once the testing level is improved, the positivity rate and the resulting confirmed cases are expected to climb. Unfortunately, the veterans living in small towns and rural areas do not have easy access to the VA hospitals and clinics, so the reported cases (as indicated above) do not represent the 20.4M active population. According to some experts, it could be manifold higher.

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3. Despite the inadequate care, the VA system has already registered more cases than in 20 US states and all territories. It has the second-highest death rate and fourth highest positivity rate on the list. Lately, its caseloads and deaths are on the rise alongside the rising cases in the Sunbelt. Again, the VA shows the worst testing credentials on this list.  

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4. The above graph from the VA site shows the rapid surge in July, which has continued into August. Though the VA reports a very limited active caseload of 14%, its convalescent cases account for over 80%, so the active case picture, unlike in different states, is somewhat misleading. 

5. Ideally, the VA system should be merged with Medicare so all veterans would qualify for Medicare. As indicated before, the veterans living in small towns and rural areas are at a significant disadvantage in having proper access to medical care as they generally prefer to stick to the VA system to avoid out-of-pocket expenditures. If the VA system becomes part of Medicare, our veterans would be better off. 

"Medicare for All Veterans" will be a good start, eventually leading to "Medicare for All."

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.accesstocare.va.gov/Healthcare/COVID19NationalSummary

-Sid Som 

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – July was an Awful Month for the USA

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1. The US has been experiencing an extraordinary surge due to the considerable escalation in the Sunbelt. While daily cases averaged 27,990 in June, the average more than doubled in July to a whopping 61,148. The 5-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged a 636 in June, rapidly climbing to 808 in July. On ten different occasions in July, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 1,000 instances. Had the reporting been more consistent in the weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. The trendline, however, demonstrates the sharp rise in July.

3. The slope in the regression graph is not only exponential, but the angle is also tilting up. Although the growth rate started declining in mid-June, the trend suddenly reversed in July, thus bumping up the slope from the prior linear to the exponential. This reversal, primarily brought about by the Sunbelt, has caused significant concerns at the CDC and local public health professionals.

4. Though the US death rate has steadily declined, falling below the worldwide average, its positivity rate has been inching up. Of course, this spike could very well result from the increased testing, which has lately been logging in at 180K (per million people). The US's testing credentials are second only to Russia's.

5. At the beginning of June, New York and New Jersey spearheaded the total cases, while Texas and Florida occupied the seventh and eighth positions. Now, California, Florida, and Texas top the list. Unfortunately, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, the four hard-hit Sunbelt states have been registering very high positivity rates, causing serious concerns for the local hospitals.

Data Sources: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – South Carolina is the latest State to join the Surge in the Sunbelt

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1. South Carolina is the latest state to join the extraordinary surge in the Sunbelt. While the daily cases averaged 818 in June, the average more than doubled to 1,697 in July. The 5-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

2. The daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged a mere 8 in June, exponentiating to 31 in July. On eight different occasions, the daily deaths exceeded 50 instances. Had the reporting been more consistent, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. The trendline, however, demonstrates the sharp rise in July.

3. The regression graph is perhaps more telling. The slope is not only exponential, but the angle is also getting steeper every day. Initially, the growth rate in daily cases either moved in tandem or exceeded the increase in death tolls. Still, lately it has sharply reversed, causing significant paranoia among local public health professionals.   

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4. The above table shows how South Carolina compares with the other Sunbelt states currently under siege by the surge. Despite the rising death toll in July, South Carolina's death rate of 1.9% remains comparable to its Sunbelt counterparts and is well under the national average. Even its normalized population death rate (per million) remains contained. 

5. Finally, the rising positivity rate, which is well above the national average, has become a severe concern to its hospital system. Any further escalation in hospitalizations will push the system to a tipping point.

Data Sources: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Carolina

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com