Coronavirus Pandemic – Front-running Market Players in Race to Develop Covid-19 Vaccine

While there are many players in the market mix to develop the Covid-19 vaccine, seven players have emerged as the frontline contenders. Of the seven, five are well-known pharmaceutical conglomerates: AstraZeneca (AZN), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Gilead Sciences (GILD), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), and Pfizer (PFE). Despite having frontline status, their year-to-date growth rates have been quite subdued, ranging between -13% and +10%.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

On the other hand, until the recent breakout of the coronavirus pandemic, Moderna (MRNA) and Novavax (NVAX) were more or less unknown names. The reason these two stocks have become household names is their meteoric rise in such a short period. While the year-to-date growth of Moderna has been an impressive 285%, Novavax has seen an astronomical growth of 3,693% (the stock price went from a mere $4.50 on 1/2/20 to $170.29 on 8/7/20).

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The above correlations matrix demonstrates how the market perceives their inter-relations. As expected, Novavax has a high correlation with Moderna, but negative-to-moderate correlations with the other five. 

Novavax has a moderately high correlation with AstraZeneca as the latter has returned 10% growth during this period. Conversely, Novavax has a negative correlation with Glaxo, as the latter has produced -13%, but has remained uncorrelated with Gilead, J&J, and Pfizer as these three name-brand stocks have flatlined.  

Moderna, being the other growth stock, has very similar correlations with its competitors.

An aggressive growth fund, therefore, will choose both Moderna and Novavax, a balanced fund will stick to two-to-three from the name brand five, and a value fund will perhaps prefer the three dogs from the mix.

Stay safe!

Data Source: Yahoo Finance

Disclaimer - The author is not advocating any of the stocks listed here. Consult your Registered Rep, RIA or Financial Planner for an appropriate asset allocation model and the suitability of stocks and other holdings for you.

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Link to Sid's Books

Coronavirus Pandemic – The On-going Rapid Surge in the Midwest

To keep this blog post short and simple, the Midwest here comprises only five states: Illinois (IL), Indiana (IN), Michigan (MI), Minnesota (MN), and Wisconsin (WI). 

While some of the Midwest states (IN, MN and WI) are surging, others (IL and MI) are resurging. Even the states that are left out have been participating in the current surge.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

1. The current surge resumed in mid-June and has been escalating rapidly. The daily cases averaged 2,093 in June but jumped 78% in July to a whopping 3,716. MI, which encountered a massive surge in April, has been spearheading the current surge with 165% jump, month-over-month, followed by WI (129%), IN (79%), IL (50%) and MN (35%).

2. The above correlation matrix reveals that the combined MidWest has the highest and lowest correlations expectedly with MI and MN, respectively, in line with their contributions to the current surge. Likewise, MI has the highest and lowest correlations with WI and MN, respectively. Since multi-collinearity has been disregarded here, it has paved the way for some minor distortions.

(CLick on the image to enlarge)

3. The residual impact of the prior surge has contributed to MI's inflated death rate, resulting in the entire MidWest's higher death rate. While MI and IL have been registering higher death and population mortality rates, WI and MN are on a better course. On the other hand, the positivity rates of IL and IN have remained relatively high. IN's testing credentials have also fallen behind its regional counterparts.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

                  Link to Sid's Books

Coronavirus Pandemic – Brazil Reaches another Unfortunate Milestone – 100K Death Toll

Today, Brazil hits another unfortunate milestone: the 100K death toll. It's a somber day for Brazil, indeed.

Brazil has been the epicenter of the outbreak in South America since May, occupying the number two position behind the US but far surpassing the hardest-hit European countries and India. 

The outbreak in Brazil was quite delayed relative to the outbreak in Europe and the USA. On 3/15, Brazil had only 200 cases and no deaths, while the US already had 160,686 cases and 2,985 deaths. In Europe, Italy had 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths, while the cases in Spain and France were on the rise. 

Highlights...

(Click on the image to enlarge)

1. Brazil has been experiencing an extraordinary surge since May. While daily cases averaged 29,573 in June, the average jumped to 41,316 in July/August -- a whopping 40% escalation. The 5-day moving average trendline confirms the massive rise. The 'W' formation poses a more severe threat in the short-run.

2. However, the daily death toll has been flat-lining, which is a silver lining in all this doom and gloom. The daily death toll averaged 1,009 in June, moving sideways to 1,050 in July/August. On eighteen different occasions in July/August, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 1,200 instances. The trendline also demonstrates the sideways movement in July/August. 

3. The slope in the above aggregate regression graph is almost perfectly linear, posing the same relentless threat more threat to the vulnerable population as in June and July, considering Brazil -- like the rest of hard-hit South America -- has a very high positivity rate. 

4. The above daily regression graph's slope remains linear, confirming that the mortality rate -- unlike in the US and Europe -- has been uncontrolled. The daily regression scatter produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value, without the handful of outliers resulting from inconsistent reporting on weekends. 

(Click on tbe image to enlarge)

5. The above table shows how Brazil stacks up against its hardest-hit South American neighbors. Though it has a reason death rate, its normalized population mortality rate has been very high, behind only Peru and Chile. In general, South America has some of the highest positivity rates in the world, and Brazil has not bucked the trend either.  

By being in Southern Hemisphere, Brazil is in the middle of the winter season, meaning it is also in the midst of the conventional allergy and flu season, thus accentuating the havoc. 

Unfortunately, many local experts believe the reported numbers do not reflect the reality on the ground. According to Alexandre Naime Barbosa, a medical professor at the São Paulo State University, "The true number (of cases) could even be as high as 10 million people." 

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Link to Sid's Books

Coronavirus Pandemic – The Relentless Surge Rattles Mexico

Today, Mexico hit a grim milestone – 50K deaths.

Highlights...

(Click on the image to enlarge)

1. While the surge in Mexico has been relentless since early- June, it has reached almost a horrific level in July/August. Though the daily cases averaged 2,305 in May, the average jumped to 4,514 in June and a whopping 6,395 in July. The linear slope of the 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged 260 in May, more than doubled to 595 in June, and drove further higher to 615 since then. Since June, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 800 instances on twelve different occasions. Had the reporting been more consistent on weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. The trendline, however, demonstrates the sharp rise in June and July.

3. Though the slope in the above aggregate regression graph is almost perfectly linear, the recent death trend has been slightly up-sloping, posing more threat to the vulnerable population, considering Mexico has one of the worst testing records in Latin America.

4. The slope in the above daily regression graph remains linear, except at the curve's outer end, confirming the threat mentioned above in the short-run. The daily regression scatter produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value, without the handful of outliers resulting from inconsistent reporting on weekends.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

5. The above table shows how Mexico stacks up against its hardest-hit Latin American neighbors. By now, it's an open secret that Mexico has been registering the highest death rate in Latin America and also has one of the highest death rates globally. Though Latin America, in general, has some of the highest positivity rates in the world, Mexico, Bolivia, and Honduras, in particular, have astronomically high rates in the '40s. 

Additionally, Mexico has the worst testing credentials among these countries.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Mexico

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – The State of Ohio has been Rapidly Resurging

(Click on the image to enlarge)

1. Though the state of Ohio peaked and tapered in mid-June, the trend quickly reversed in late-June, starting an extraordinary resurgence by eclipsing the original highs set in April and May. While the daily cases averaged 543 in June, the average more than doubled in July to a whopping 1,270. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive resurgence.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The regression graph makes it amply clear that the death toll has started spiking after flattening in the middle of the curve (May/June). Had the reporting been more consistent on weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. However, the trendline demonstrates the reversal at the outer end of the curve (July/August).

(Click on the image to enlarge)

3. The death rate in Ohio has not only stabilized but has also fallen below some of its surrounding neighbors, particularly Pennsylvania and Michigan. Moreover, its testing credentials are worse than most of its neighbors. Though its positivity rate is still below the national average, it will start inching up with increased testing.

To flatten the resurging curve, Ohio needs to re-introduce more stringent mitigation measures, including a more careful multi-phase re-opening of schools, religious institutions, theme parks, and indoor amusement centers.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ohio

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
  

Coronavirus Pandemic – Romania has been Surging alongside other Central European Countries

(Click on the image to enlarge)

1. Despite having escaped a major outbreak alongside the original hard-hit European countries, Romania has been experiencing an unexpected surge since mid-July. While daily cases averaged 257 in June, the average more than doubled in July to 771 and has continued into August. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the steadily-rising surge.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged 13 in June, rapidly climbing to 22 in July. On ten different occasions in July, the daily deaths exceeded 25 instances. The trendline also demonstrates the sharp rise in July.

3. Though the slope in the aggregate regression graph (top) is linear, the slope in the daily graph (bottom) has already transformed exponentially, which poses a significant threat in the short-run. The regression of daily cases without the handful of outliers produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value. 

(Click on the image to enlarge)

4. The above table shows how Romania stacks up against its neighbors. Though its death rate has been steadily rising, its positivity rate has remained stable. However, even after six months into the pandemic in Europe, it's hard to believe it has been registering only 67K testing credentials. As it increases its testing, the cases and positivity are expected to escalate.  

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Romania

-Sid Som
homequant@Qgmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Testing Credentials of the VA System are Appalling

(Click on the image to enlarge)

1. The Veterans Affairs department (VA) has been caring for nearly 40K veterans. Though its death rate of 5.4% and a positivity rate of 8.3% are well in line with the hardest-hit states, it nonetheless owns miserable testing credentials relative to those states. The normalized testing rate of 24K vis-a-vis the national average of 184K is just appalling.

2. Of course, once the testing level is improved, the positivity rate and the resulting confirmed cases are expected to climb. Unfortunately, the veterans living in small towns and rural areas do not have easy access to the VA hospitals and clinics, so the reported cases (as indicated above) do not represent the 20.4M active population. According to some experts, it could be manifold higher.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

3. Despite the inadequate care, the VA system has already registered more cases than in 20 US states and all territories. It has the second-highest death rate and fourth highest positivity rate on the list. Lately, its caseloads and deaths are on the rise alongside the rising cases in the Sunbelt. Again, the VA shows the worst testing credentials on this list.  

(Click on the image to enlarge)

4. The above graph from the VA site shows the rapid surge in July, which has continued into August. Though the VA reports a very limited active caseload of 14%, its convalescent cases account for over 80%, so the active case picture, unlike in different states, is somewhat misleading. 

5. Ideally, the VA system should be merged with Medicare so all veterans would qualify for Medicare. As indicated before, the veterans living in small towns and rural areas are at a significant disadvantage in having proper access to medical care as they generally prefer to stick to the VA system to avoid out-of-pocket expenditures. If the VA system becomes part of Medicare, our veterans would be better off. 

"Medicare for All Veterans" will be a good start, eventually leading to "Medicare for All."

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.accesstocare.va.gov/Healthcare/COVID19NationalSummary

-Sid Som 

homequant@gmail.com